The PMI data hit the lowest level since September 2009
|The dollar index hit a one-month high yesterday, hitting a range of 97.80 to 98.00 before falling back, mainly due to the release of Market Manufacturing PMI data for July, which was not as good as expected.
The data hit the lowest level since September 2009, and the new home sales data was not as good as expected. Specific data showed that the preliminary Market manufacturing PMI for July actually released 50, the lowest since September 2009. The forecast was 51.0, compared with the previous reading of 50.6. The seasonally adjusted total number of new homes sold in June actually came in at an annual rate of 646,000, compared with a forecast of 658,000 and a previous estimate of 626,000.
The dollar index fell back. The short-term appears ahead. The above pressure is still in the 97.80-98.00 range, with lower support in the vicinity of 97.30. This wave of the dollar index rebound may come to an end. The market does not rule out the possibility of falling back.
The euro hit an intraday low of 1.1126 against the dollar, its weakest since May 31, as dovish expectations for Thursday's ECB policy meeting kept the euro under pressure and further weakness in the euro zone's preliminary manufacturing PMI data added to the euro zone's losses.
With the decline of the dollar index, the EUR/USD to rebound, from the current K line pattern analysis, bottoming rebound recorded a long shadow, which is a reversal signal, late or sustained rebound trend. The lower support is around 1.1126 of the lower rail of Bollinger Band, and the upper pressure is around 1.1200.
Britain's newly elected Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, took office and immediately reshuffled his cabinet. This was seen by the markets as a sign that the mystery of British politics, which had been haunting for more than a month, was coming to an end. Mr. Johnson's promise to be "not afraid of a hard Brexit" paved the way for him to secure a last-minute compromise to achieve his Brexit goal, which was seen as a "death by death" gamble.
The pound bounced back above 1.2500, with the upper pressure around 1.2600 and the lower support around 1.2400.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are currently locked in a long/short battle around 1420, with weak us Numbers and expectations of global central bank easing continuing to support prices, as well as fears of a hard Brexit in the UK and events in the Middle East.
The short-term pressure above is in the range of 1427-1430. The pressure above is in the range of 1435. The short-term support below is in the range of 1410, and the lower support below is at the integer level of 1400.
USO/USD
U.S. commercial crude stocks excluding strategic reserves fell 10.835 million barrels, or 2.4 percent, to 445 million barrels in the week ended July 19, EIA data showed. Domestic oil production fell by 700,000 barrels a day last week to 11.3 million barrels a day, bringing the total decline to 1 million barrels a day in two weeks.
The current rebound in oil prices is likely to continue, with API inventories falling by more than 10 million barrels and EIA maintaining its destocking stance. The current market is in the stage of destocking, the overall trend of the market is good, so in the short term as long as the macro does not deteriorate, the oil price is not likely to have a sharp drop in the foundation.
Yesterday, New York crude oil rebounded from the 200-day moving average pressure, is currently around 57.25. Once the price above the 58 pressure level, the above the pressure is in the vicinity of 60. The short-term support is in the vicinity of 56, then below the support in the 55 line.
PS: Today focus
16:00 Germany's IFO business climate index for July
18:00 The CBI retail sales gap for July in the UK
20:30 Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 20 (10,000)
20:30 Preliminary monthly rate of us durable goods orders in June (%)
20:30 Initial monthly rate of wholesale inventory in June (%)
19:45 The European central bank announces its interest rate decision.
20:30 ECB President Mario Draghi held a news conference at 20:30 in Frankfurt, Germany.
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