Serenity now

• Dollar rebounds in bits and pieces.
• Something is going on in Copper.

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Up late last night, because the Cardinals/ Nats game was rain delayed and didn't start until 9 pm.. I made it through 6 innings and finally gave in to the sand man... I did get outside yesterday, and it was a hot one, like 7 inches from the midday sun! And I stayed outside for an hour, and then had to go back inside to read. Chilliwack greets me this morning with their great 70's song... Fly By Night...

Editor's note: This edition of the Pfennig will be short-n-sweet...

Well, all the enthusiasm regarding the dollar selling last week has turned to the dollar rallying, not a lot, but rallying nonetheless... The euro is hanging on to the 1.17 figure by the skin of its teeth. The BBDXY starts today up 1 index from yesterday's close that saw the BBDXY gain 2 index points to 1,196.. This is what I was talking about when I said that the dollar's demise was not a One-Way street... So, we just look to add to our diversification at cheaper prices and wait for the underlying weak dollar trend to return. 

Gold can't find a bid these last couple of trading sessions, and yesterday was no different, with Gold losing $34 to close at $3,301... UGH! Gold's June Swoon has filtered over to July it does appear... Silver didn't get caught up in Gold selling, but didn't find any buyers and ended the day trading in the same clothes as the Monday, at $36.80.

The price of Oil bumped higher to trade with a $68 handle this morning... The Truce is holding apparently, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, so Oil is seeing lots of love these days, but remember it only takes a get-away missile to start of the fighting once again... I'm just saying...

The 10-year Treasury is trading this morning at 4.41%... No Fed buying.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar gained a bit more, and the BBDXY shows a 1 index gain to 1,197 to start our day today... Gold is down $15, and Silver is down 28-cents... These rate forecasts are really playing hell with the precious metals folks... But, I say look to buy more metals at cheaper prices... And I'll repeat that probably again tomorrow, so look forward to that! HA! 

There's something weird going on in Copper folks... I went to check the price of Copper this morning and both Kitco, and Bloomberg have Copper priced at $5.55... Yesterday, the POTUS announced a 50% tariff on Copper imports... Now, that can't be good for the metal, but still its up greatly?  Here's Bloomberg.com with their thoughts on Copper: " Trump’s already imposed 50% levies on steel and aluminum, but there’s particular concern about the economic impact of copper tariffs because the US is highly reliant on imports. US buyers have already warned that the measure risks undermining Trump’s core ambitions to revive manufacturing and challenge China’s industrial might.

“The US does not have nearly enough mine/smelter/refinery capacity to be self-sufficient in copper.”

Chuck again... What on earth is going on in the world these days? It all appears to be wanting to absorb chaos, and more chaos... I don't deal well with chaos, folks... I like things going along without snags and roadblocks... But that's the life we now live, one filled with Chaos! And what asset class is best to handle chaos? Got Gold?

Serenity Now! I can't begin to express my dislike of turbulent times in the markets... But then, I'm sure longtime readers know that already.

And a life filled with Opposites is here among us... Why would the dollar rally when the POTUS announces a new tariff, when we all know that the tariff will result in higher prices for EVERYTHING? Me-oh-my... I shake my head in disbelief!

And circling back to Copper... The price was even higher than $5.55 yesterday when the POTUS announced the new tariff... This is what is called a liquidity problem, and has led to hand over fist buying of the metal... The tariff has created a significantly higher premium for Copper... I wonder how many Gov't staffers knew of this coming tariff and bought Copper ahead of the announcement? Don't snicker, I do believe that this happens all the time, how else do these guys come out of D.C with multi-million bank accounts? Fraud, Corruption, bad deals for Americans, What else in their personal resume's?  

And what's going on with the 10-year Treasury? Because its rise in yield has more to it that no Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel buying... Well, I have something for you on that thought in the FWIW section today, so I don't want to give you spoiler alert... I'm stingy in that kind of way, HA! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the May Consumer Credit (read debt) and it was expected to be half of April's $10 Billion... Well, the report was even better than forecast as the Consumer debt fell to $5 Billion in May... The same things I talked about yesterday regarding why this is happening still applies here... But just in case you forgot or skipped over that yesterday, here's what I had to say about Consumer Debt: " Either Consumers have pulled back their deficit spending because they've run the max on their credit cards, and new ones haven't arrived yet, or... Consumers have decided to tighten their belts because it's the right thing to do...  Which one do you pick? My bet is on the former explanation... ".

To recap... The dollar continued to rebound a bit at time, no real strong buying going on, just some speculation that things will continue to be peaceful without a lot of chaos going on... I say that won't last, so don't go out and sell your currencies for dollar just yet... I'm just saying The price of Oil is reacting to the peace by rising... And the 10-year Treasury has seen on Fed buying and so its yield rises.

Here's your snippet: "A rally in Treasuries that’s delivered the longest streak of gains for benchmark 10-year debt since August paused on Wednesday ahead of another chunky auction of securities.

Yields for all maturities rose as much as 3 basis points as of 9:55 a.m. in New York. The US government is set to sell $42 billion of new 10-year notes at 1 p.m. and $25 Billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. While investors often seek higher yields to absorb additional bond issuance, a sale of three-year securities on Tuesday received solid demand despite rallying beforehand, and yields remained lower on the day afterward.

The current 10-year note’s yield has declined for five straight days to about 4.49%, extending its retreat from year-to-date highs over 4.7%. Mounting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year — based on comments last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and weak April jobs data — prompted a wave of buying, including short-covering by traders axing bets that benefit from higher yields.

“For the most part, yields are going to hover around 4.5% until we have confirmation on the data front,” Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale, said on Bloomberg Television.

Wednesday’s auction at $42 billion matches February’s as the largest 10-year new issue on record. A new 10-year note comes out once per quarter and is expanded over the following two months via reopening's."

Chuck again... now before you go bonkers on me about this, I think the Bloomberg editor should have caught this, but nooooo, they have me to check their writing! When Bloomberg talks about the 10-year's yield they have it all backward... I'm just saying.

Market Prices 7/8/2025: American Style: A$ .6525, kiwi .5989, C$ .7301, euro 1.1701, Swiss $1.2555, European Style: rand 17.8302, krone 10.1020, SEK 9.5365, forint 341.95, zloty 3.6225, koruna 21.0425, RUB 78.11, yen 146.67, sing 1.2811, HKD 7.85, INR 85.68, China 7.1806, peso 18.58, BRL 5.4481, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 97.63, Oil $68.30, 10-year 4.41%, Silver $36.52, Platinum $1,360.00, Palladium $1,087.00, Copper $5.55, and Gold... $3,285.

That's it for today... I was remiss yesterday in not checking in on the markets as the day went along and making notes to make this morning's Pfennig a little easier... UGH! My beloved Cardinals got back in the winning column last night. No doctor appts for me his week, YAHOO! A week without getting stuck with needles, I'll take it! The Outlaws take us to the finish line today with their 9-minute song: Green Grass and High Tides... I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!