Risk appetite continues to find some tailwinds
|Notes/Observations
- Risk appetite improves following equity-market gains in the US and most of the region.
- France Dec CPI steady but remained elevated at the end of 202; Reading hints that perhaps forces propelling the headline figure higher in the past six months were now fading.
Asia
- China Dec Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.9 V 50.0E (highest since June).
- Japan Dec Final PMI Manufacturing: 54.3 v 54.2 prelim (confirms 11th consecutive expansion).
- Australia Dec Final PMI Manufacturing:57.7 v 57.4 prelim (confirms 19th month of expansion, lowest since Sept).
- BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated stance to closely watch the market and economy domestically and internationally, would continue to take appropriate policy steps while carefully assessing the economy and financial markets.
- BOK Gov Lee noted that the spread of coronavirus variant was biggest risk to economic recovery.
- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO) saw Net liquidity drain of CNY260B (comported to prior injection of CNY90B).
- China Cyberspace Administration released a revised set of internet security rules to go into effect on Feb 15th. To require security checks before IT Companies perform overseas IPOs. Platforms with more than 1M users must undergo security review before listing its shares overseas.
- Guangzhou R&F [2777.HK] debt exchange deadline.
- Evergande [3333.HK] resumed trading. Company to continue active communication with creditors, confirmed receipt of administrative penalty related to 39 buildings.
Coronavirus
- Germany loosened omicron travel restrictions for UK, South Africa.
Americas
- Sarah Raskin said to be the preferred choice for Fed Supervision position.
- White House said to be likely to name former research economist Philip Jefferson to Fed Board of Governors.
Energy
- Opec+ to meet to decide on policy for February. Delegates said to see no need to change the current plan of easing the cuts by 400k bpd.
- OPEC Sec Gen-elect al-Ghais stated that a top priority was supporting the continuation of OPEC+ cooperation agreement into 2023. Agreement was important for the stability and balance of oil markets.
Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum
Equities
Indices [Stoxx600 +1.07% at 493.04, FTSE +1.18% at 7,471.58, DAX +0.38 at 16,081.08, CAC-40 +0.96% at 7,286.71, IBEX-35 +0.33% at 8,789.97, FTSE MIB +0.31% at 27,816.00, SMI -0.19% at 12,914.40, S&P 500 Futures +0.22%].
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open higher across the board and stayed positive through the session (SMI notable exception trading modestly lower); all sectors start the day in the green; better performing sectors led by consumer discretionary and energy; among the sectors slower to rise are materials and health care; oil and gas subsector supported by increase in gas prices across Europe; CGG sells its physical asset storage unit to Oasis; focus on OPEC+ meeting later in the day; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Wizz Air [WIZZ.UK] +10% (metrics).
- Consumer staples: Macfarlane [MACF.UK] +2% (divestment).
- Healthcare: Novartis [NOVN.CH] +1% (patent ruling), Sanofi [SAN.FR] -1.5%, Valneva [VLA.FR] -9% (Sanofi's vaccine revenue guidance).
Speakers
- France Fin Min Le Maire reiterated that govt saw 2022 GDP growth at 4.0%.
Currencies/Fixed income
- USD was supported by the recent jump in yields but has moved off its best level by mid-session. The US 10-year yield exceeded 1.60% level for the first time since the omicron variant emerged. Markets continue to bet on a growing conviction that the Fed does begin to raise interest rates in 2022.
- USD/JPY at 5-year high aided by the higher US yields.
- GBP/USD moved off session lows to re-approach the 1.35 area.
Economic data
- (DE) Germany Nov Retail Sales M/M: +0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -3.1%e.
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e.
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior.
- (TH) Thailand Dec Business Sentiment Index: 49.0 v 48.4 prior.
- (FR) France Dec Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9%e.
- (FR) France Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e.
- (ES) Spain Dec Net Unemployment Change: -76.8K v -74.4K prior (10th straight monthly decline).
- (HU) Hungary Oct Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 8.5% v 9.3%.
- (DE) Germany Dec Net Unemployment Change: -23.0K v -15.0Ke prior; Unemployment Claims Rate: 5.2% v 5.3%e.
- (UK) Dec Final Manufacturing PMI: 57.9 v 57.6e (confirmed 19th straight expansion).
- (UK) Nov Net Consumer Credit: £1.2B v £0.8Be; Net Lending: £3.7B v £3.1Be.
- (UK) Nov Mortgage Approvals: 67.0K v 66.0Ke.
- (UK) Nov M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.7% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.9% v 7.0% prior; M4 (ex-IOFCs) Annualized: 6.9% v 6.7% prior.
Fixed income issuance
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR25.0T vs. IDR25.0T target in bills and bonds.
Looking ahead
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the base Rate by 50bps to 2.25%.
- OPEC + monthly oil meeting.
- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.0B in 0% Dec 2023 Schatz.
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell combined €2.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.
- 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.5B in 3-month Bills.
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
- 08:00 (SG) Singapore Dec Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): No est v 50.6 prior.
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
- 08:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov MLI Leading Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior.
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.8%e v 1.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 4.8% prior.
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.
- 09:30 (CA) Canada Dec Manufacturing PMI: No est v 57.2 prior.
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Manufacturing: 60.2e v 61.1 prior; Prices Paid: 79.3e v 82.4 prior.
- 10:00 (US) Nov JOLTS Job Openings: 11.100Me v 11.033M prior.
- 11:00 (DK) Denmark Dec Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 481.5B prior.
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Foreign Reserves: No est v $463.9B prior.
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.
- 18:50 (JP) Japan end-Dec Monetary Base: No est v ¥660.4T prior.
- 19:30 (HK) Hong Kong Dec PMI (whole economy): No est v 52.6 prior.
- 19:30 (SG) Singapore Dec PMI (whole economy): No est v 52.0 prior.
- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Dec CPI Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.2% prior.
- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Dec PMI Services: No est v 59.3 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 59.3 prior.
- 22:30 (TH) Thailand Dec CPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior; CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior.
- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year JGB Bonds.
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