Gold Price Forecast: Next on the upside sits $4,300
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UPGRADE- Gold prices has started the week on a solid footing, surpassing $4,260.
- The US Dollar loses further momentum despite higher US Treasury yields.
- Bets for another 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed remain on the rise.
Gold’s rebound is still gathering pace on Monday, pushing beyond $4,260 per troy ounce and marking fresh six-week highs. The move comes even as US Treasury yields climb across the curve, while the Dollar remains under pressure and thus giving the precious metal plenty of upside room.
Zoom out, and the story stays bullish. Gold is now on track for a fifth straight monthly gain, having decisively broken out of the late-August consolidation around the $3,300 area. Furthermore, geopolitical unease and a steady stream of chatter about more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts continue to keep buyers on the front foot.
Could that change? Sure. If global risk sentiment brightens, especially if peace-talk headlines around Russia and Ukraine gain traction, some of the metal’s safe-haven appeal could ease. But so far, every dip has been snapped up quickly.
In addition, market expectations are still leaning heavily toward easier policy from the Fed. Traders largely believe the Fed will cut rates again at the December 10 meeting, and pricing further out suggests nearly a full percentage point of easing by the end of 2026, a clear tailwind for a non-yielding asset like bullion.
Technically speaking
If buyers stay in the driver’s seat, the first hurdle is the December 1 high at $4,264. A clear break there opens the door to the record peak at $4,380 (October 17), a more meaningful challenge that could determine whether this latest leg higher has real staying power.
On the downside, there’s a supportive layer not far beneath current levels. The transitory 55-day SMA at $4,007 lines up with weekly support at $3,997 (November 18). Lose that, and the next notable cushion comes in at another weekly floor at $3,886 (October 28). A deeper retreat would put the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May–October rally at $3,750 back on the radar.
Additionally, momentum signals still lean in favour of the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 65, which implies the market is heating up but not yet stretched: There’s room for further upside before conditions get overbought.
At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) sitting near 21 tells us the uptrend is quietly strengthening, not a rip-roaring rally, but one that’s building momentum step by step. Readings in the low 20s usually point to a trend that’s emerging from a consolidation phase, the kind of steady climb that can stick around rather than burn out quickly.
Put together, the indicators show a market with momentum in its favour and technical support nearby, showing a constructive backdrop for now.
What’s next?
The near-term outlook still depends on the same familiar mix: Fed communication, the health of the US economy, and the global mood. If the Fed continues to sound more relaxed about inflation, or the data points to a softer labour market, Gold should stay well supported.
And unless geopolitical tensions fade meaningfully, bullion won’t need new drama to keep climbing. As long as the US Dollar struggles to attract buyers, the bias remains upward, likely more of a steady grind than a runaway surge.
Overall, Gold’s tone remains bullish, a market still leaning toward higher rather than lower, with plenty of support beneath the surface.
- Gold prices has started the week on a solid footing, surpassing $4,260.
- The US Dollar loses further momentum despite higher US Treasury yields.
- Bets for another 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed remain on the rise.
Gold’s rebound is still gathering pace on Monday, pushing beyond $4,260 per troy ounce and marking fresh six-week highs. The move comes even as US Treasury yields climb across the curve, while the Dollar remains under pressure and thus giving the precious metal plenty of upside room.
Zoom out, and the story stays bullish. Gold is now on track for a fifth straight monthly gain, having decisively broken out of the late-August consolidation around the $3,300 area. Furthermore, geopolitical unease and a steady stream of chatter about more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts continue to keep buyers on the front foot.
Could that change? Sure. If global risk sentiment brightens, especially if peace-talk headlines around Russia and Ukraine gain traction, some of the metal’s safe-haven appeal could ease. But so far, every dip has been snapped up quickly.
In addition, market expectations are still leaning heavily toward easier policy from the Fed. Traders largely believe the Fed will cut rates again at the December 10 meeting, and pricing further out suggests nearly a full percentage point of easing by the end of 2026, a clear tailwind for a non-yielding asset like bullion.
Technically speaking
If buyers stay in the driver’s seat, the first hurdle is the December 1 high at $4,264. A clear break there opens the door to the record peak at $4,380 (October 17), a more meaningful challenge that could determine whether this latest leg higher has real staying power.
On the downside, there’s a supportive layer not far beneath current levels. The transitory 55-day SMA at $4,007 lines up with weekly support at $3,997 (November 18). Lose that, and the next notable cushion comes in at another weekly floor at $3,886 (October 28). A deeper retreat would put the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May–October rally at $3,750 back on the radar.
Additionally, momentum signals still lean in favour of the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 65, which implies the market is heating up but not yet stretched: There’s room for further upside before conditions get overbought.
At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) sitting near 21 tells us the uptrend is quietly strengthening, not a rip-roaring rally, but one that’s building momentum step by step. Readings in the low 20s usually point to a trend that’s emerging from a consolidation phase, the kind of steady climb that can stick around rather than burn out quickly.
Put together, the indicators show a market with momentum in its favour and technical support nearby, showing a constructive backdrop for now.
What’s next?
The near-term outlook still depends on the same familiar mix: Fed communication, the health of the US economy, and the global mood. If the Fed continues to sound more relaxed about inflation, or the data points to a softer labour market, Gold should stay well supported.
And unless geopolitical tensions fade meaningfully, bullion won’t need new drama to keep climbing. As long as the US Dollar struggles to attract buyers, the bias remains upward, likely more of a steady grind than a runaway surge.
Overall, Gold’s tone remains bullish, a market still leaning toward higher rather than lower, with plenty of support beneath the surface.
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