Gold correction, Crude Oil momentum and S&P topping signals

As global markets navigate shifting macro conditions and technical turning points, key assets are presenting distinct trade setups. Gold is undergoing a healthy correction with bullish potential emerging near key order blocks. Crude Oil (WTI) continues its upward momentum, fueled by strong fundamentals and a technical gap that may drive price toward higher targets. Meanwhile, the E-mini S&P is showing signs of exhaustion, with a potential short-term top forming near recent highs. This cross-asset snapshot highlights critical levels and directional bias to watch in the coming sessions.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold appears to have completed its impulsive Wave (III) at the 3517 high and is now entering a Wave (IV) corrective phase, forming a classic (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag. Technical confluence across Neo Wave, ICT methodology, Gann angles, and harmonic cycles points to a likely drawdown toward 3107, with deeper projections to 2894—marking key Fibonacci retracement zones.

Technical & Neo wave structure

• Gold peaked at 3517, marked as a likely Wave (III) of a larger impulsive cycle.

• Currently undergoing a corrective wave (IV) as a classic (a)-(b)-(c) Zigzag.

• Subwave on daily basis (c) is likely unfolding now, with downside projections pointing toward 3107 (Fib 23.6%) and deeper correction potential to 2894 (Fib 38.2%).

ICT analysis

• CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed near 3430–3450.

• Sell-side liquidity sweep below 3250 may allow draw on higher timeframe liquidity pools.

• Fair Value Gaps: 3380–3402 (untouched), 3188–3200 (likely target zone).

• Key Order Block: 3050–3100. Expect reaction and accumulation near this OB-FVG confluence.

Gann angles and channel structure

• Short-term steep Gann angle broken.

• Broader trendline support stands at 2900–2950.

• Price could consolidate in this Gann zone before the next impulsive leg higher.

Vibration and harmonic cycle

• Applying musical harmonics (using 3240 as 0° Aries base):

  • The last leg up was a harmonic extension from Mi (2832) → So (3167) → Ti (3432–3517).

  • Price now falling back to harmonic reset zone near Mi (3050).

• A successful retest here aligns with historical vibration support zones and Gann retracement.

Quand and order flow signals

• Multiple divergence signals (price, delta, body) detected near the 3430–3450 top.

• Volume thinning as price made higher highs suggests momentum exhaustion.

Fundamental backdrop

• Central banks (especially BRICS nations) remain net buyers.

• US Fed expectations shifting toward cuts in H2 2025.

• Safe-haven flows remain intact amid geopolitical risk.

• A correction is warranted technically but mid-to-long-term bias remains bullish.

An intraday short position from 3345/3352 targets 3292, with a deeper downside extension possible toward 3265. A potential buying opportunity could emerge mid-week from the 3223/3232 zone, with a protective stop at 3197.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Crude oil is currently trading around $66.00, with a bullish gap still open at 66.45 and upside projections aiming toward 68.12 and 69.80. Price action suggests the market has completed a Wave 2 correction at $64.00 and is now entering a classic Wave 3 acceleration, supported by ICT liquidity structures, a filled Fair Value Gap, and emerging buy-side momentum.

Neo wave and ICT

• Crude completed Wave 2 correction at 64.00 and is now entering Wave 3 acceleration.

• ICT Smart Money behavior suggests buy-side liquidity targets post-gap.

• Fair Value Gap: 64.00–64.60

• Order Block support: 64.80–65.00

Six sigma analysis

• Mean: 63.20

• +1σ: 65.90 (tested)

• +2σ: 68.12 (projected next)

• +3σ: 70.00 (potential blow-off top or reversal zone)

• Crude is now operating within a +1σ to +2σ expansion phase. Mean reversion expected post-68.12 or 69.80 spike.

Vibration zones

• Current swing from 61.50 to 68.12 is a Ti harmonic vibration extension, possibly heading to the upper octave if volume supports.

• We wait to buy once Gap is filled or wait for the market to forms its bottom around 65.00-ish area

Macro-fundamentals

• China’s restocking demand and US hurricane disruptions providing near-term support.

• Strategic Reserve rebalancing and OPEC+ compliance in focus.

• Bullish structure sustained as long as price holds above 64.50

With current movement between +1σ and +2σ expansion bands, and vibration zones aligning near 68.12, short-term spikes may test upper harmonics before reverting to the mean. Macro support from China’s demand recovery, U.S. hurricane risk, and OPEC+ compliance continue to underpin the bullish bias — as long as $64.50 holds firm.

E-Mini S&P 500 (ES futures)

The index is currently trading around 6298, after hitting a day high of 6312—a level now tested thrice, hinting at upside exhaustion unless volume confirms a breakout above 6335–6349. Technical structure shows signs of weakening momentum with divergent delta, narrowing candle body ranges, and a potential CHoCH formation on a break below 6275.

Technical and ICT observations:

• Recent triple tap at 6312 hints at exhaustion unless broken convincingly.

• CHoCH (Change of Character) forms if 6275 breaks.

• Key FVG lies between 6242–6238, possible intraday retracement zone.

• Order Block support: 6180–6200

Vibration harmonic cycle

• The rally from 6120 aligns with harmonic sequence: Do → Re → So → Ti

• Current level (6312) is a minor harmonic overshoot.

• A retracement to So/Mi vibration range of 6024–6060 is possible if rejection follows.

Quand and delta readings

• Quands triggered at 6310: Price making higher highs while delta diverges and body range contracts.

• Suggests a trap move or fading opportunity unless high volume breaks above 6335.

Six sigma envelope

• +2σ: 6320 (hit today)

• Mean: 6222

• Risk of mean reversion increases if sellers appear below 6285.

• Re-test zone: 6180 (Order Block + FVG)

• We are expecting a top near 6349 for today and may extend to 6400 from possible correction take this down to 6224 ish area

Fundamental drivers

• Positive NFP and strong tech earnings lifted the index.

• AI sector remains in rotation leadership.

• Fed’s policy outlook remains in flux; markets expect no hike, possibly one cut in late 2025.

• Geopolitical risk and US elections pose macro headwinds for sustained rallies.

Asset	Price	Trend	Key Zones	Bias
Gold (XAU)	3320	Correction	3272, 3202, 3175 OB	Bullish after pullback
Crude Oil	66.00	Bullish	66.45 gap, 68.12, 69.80	Upside after gap fill
E-mini S&P	6298	Topping	6312 high, 6258 FVG, 6180 OB	Short-term correction risk

Gold (XAU) remains bullish after a pullback, with key demand zones at 3272, 3202, and 3175 likely to attract buyers. Crude Oil holds a bullish outlook, with momentum expected to accelerate following a gap fill at 66.45, targeting 68.12 and 69.80. Meanwhile, the E-mini S&P is showing signs of topping near 6312, with short-term correction risk rising—especially if price fails to hold above the 6258 fair value gap and 6180 order block.