Global trade risks rising, the market risk aversion suddenly increased
|Monday, the market has no important economic data, in the context of global trade risks rising, the market risk aversion suddenly increased. The dollar index continues to shock downward, below support in 200 average line 96.95 near. Then the below support is in Bollinger band tracking 96.50 near, with the above pressure in 97.80 near.
GBP/USD
Opposition parties in Britain are considering all measures to stop Prime Minister Johnson from pushing for a hard Brexit. Labor’s shadow home secretary Diane Abbott said a no-confidence vote was one option. The pound rebounded above 1.2100 after hitting a new low of 1.2014. The lower support is at 1.2000, the previous low is at 1.1948. The upper short-term pressure is at 1.2100, and the upper pressure is at 1.2200.
USD/JPY
The dollar maintained a choppy slide against the yen, hitting a seven-month low of 105.04 on the day. Continued support for the yen came as fears of a global economic slowdown boosted safe-haven demand for the currency, while expectations of a Fed rate cut pressured the dollar, which also pressured the yen.
The lower support is at the integer level of 105.00, the previous low point is at 104.86, and the upper pressure is at 106.00.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are expected to swing around the 5,000 mark for a third straight session as weak global economic data drives investors to seek safe-haven assets. Markets are concerned that lingering economic friction could tip the global economy into recession. In particular, if Mr Trump's latest tariff threat goes ahead, it will inevitably hit consumer goods, about 70 per cent of the U.S. economy is driven by retail sales, unlike previous rounds of levies that have mainly fallen on industrial goods.
The high point of the wave is 1510.28. If it breaks through, it can be seen as high around 1527, with short-term support below 1490 and then below support around 1480.
USO/USD
Rising global trade friction came as central Banks opted to cut interest rates to support the economy, improving risk sentiment, stabilizing equities and lifting oil prices. Saudi Arabia's plan to help stabilize oil prices has boosted confidence. Saudi Arabia plans to keep oil exports below 7 million barrels a day next month, below customer demand, with state-owned Saudi Aramco supplying 700,000 barrels less crude to customers in all regions, according to an unnamed Saudi official.
New York oil shock up, the below support is in the vicinity of 53.50, putting short-term pressure at 55.00. If it has effective breakthrough, then it is to see the 200-day average of 56.50 near.
PS: Today focus
14:00 The final annual rate of German CPI in July (%)
16:30 UK unemployment rate in July (%)
17:00 The ZEW economic sentiment index for the euro zone for August
17:00 Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August
20:30 Annual rate of unadjusted CPI in July (%)
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