FX Weekly: EUR/USD, AUD, GBP, CAD, NZD, EM
|Best trades this week are found in USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. USD Vs Non USD are the drivers this week to cross pairs and the same story as last week.
USD/CHF begins the week massive overbought however no hurry this week to trade CHF cross pairs as in AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, EUR/CHF, CAD/CHF, GBP/CHF and GBP/CHF. CHF cross pairs are off kilter to USD V Non USD counterparts. No need to chase CHF cross pairs as many good trades exist.
Many good trades exist and the same story as last week.
USD/CAD begins the week overbought and the same situation as last week. While both USD/CHF and USD/CAD begin the week overbought, USD/JPY maintains a neutral position as was the case last week. From USD/CAD and USD/CHF overbought, USD/JPY maintains 3rd position as neutral. Weekly, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY maintains best 2 out of 3. The weekly struggle is USD/JPY and USD/CHF while USD/CAD is a far better currency to trade and is rarely off kilter to USD/JPY and USD/CHF.
Oversold JPY cross pairs are positioned as next in line to the 18 currency pair weekly rankings due to USD/JPY neutrality. JPY cross pairs include oversold CHF/JPY. Last week, CHF/JPY achieved 5 month lows at 117.92 and is inching ever so slowly to the 115.66 target from June's 122.00 highs. CHF/JPY targets 118.92.
No hurry to trade NZD/JPY as this pair is last in the JPY cross pair rankings. While NZD/USD is oversold, the overall NZD universe contains problems and heading into week 2 to range and cross pair problems. Nothin special this week to GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD. Better trades and easier money exist than to chase a problem currency.
EUR/GBP sits fairly neutral to begin the week. Recall last week's target 0.8571 achieved 0.8561. Like USD/JPY and USD/CHF, EUR/GBP isn't worth trade time or trouble.
CAD/EM
Most compliant in the EM space is long CAD/EM except overbought CAD/TRY. Longs work for many pips as CAD/CNY, CAD/DKK, CAD/IDR, CAD/INR, CAD/MXN, dubbed the NAFTA cross. Next, CAD/RUB from 57.05 targets 57.92. Then CAD/SGD.
EUR/EM Vs USD/EM
USD/EM across the board is deeply overbought however not all USD/EM currencies work as viable trades due to overbought USD/EM matches to overbought EUR/EM. This overbought and overbought situation wont' work well.
Best USD/EM shorts work as USD/CZK, USD/CNY, USD/DKK, USD/HRK and USD/RON.
Best EUR/EM Long trades are found in EUR/CNY, EUR/MYR and EUR/INR. Remainder EUR/EM currencies it deeply overbought.
Big problem currencies in EM are PLN, KRW, ZAR.
AUD/EM
Best long trades are as follows: AUD/CNY, AUD/DKK, AUD/IDR, AUD/MYR and AUD/SGD.
Weekly Trade USD/CAD
Short Anywhere or 1.2769 to target 1.2629. Next from kindness and competence is offered the price path.
Must cross 1.2747, 1.2726, 1.2705, 1.2684, 1.2663, 1.2642 and 1.2621.
2nd Leg
Short below 1.2576 to target 1.1512.
3rd Leg
Long 1.2512 to target 1.2555.
4th Leg
Long 1.2629 to target 1.2661.
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