French and Italian CPI dat keep door open for early spring rate cut
|Notes/observations
- French Mar CPI at lowest level since Sept 2021.
- Numerous market closures with Good Friday holiday.
Asia
- Japan Mar Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e.
- Japan Feb Jobless Rate: 2.6% v 2.4%e.
- Japan Feb Retail Sales M/M: 1.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 2.9%e.
- Japan Feb Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v +1.3%e; Y/Y:-3.4% v -2.7%e.
- South Korea Feb Industrial Production 3.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.0%e.
Europe
- ECB's Villeroy (France, dove) commented that core inflation was declining rapidly but was still too high; Stressed that the exact date of ECB’s first rate cut was not of existential importance; Cuts should start in Spring, independent of the Fed.
Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum
Equities
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: All European markets remain closed due to Easter holiday. Most of them will be closed on Monday as well.
Speakers
- Japan Currency Chief Kanda reiterated stance of not ruling out any options regarding FX, if needed; Not defending FX levels, Japan was looking at currency moves.
- Thailand PM Srettha reiterated call for Thailand Central Bank to cut rates noting that the domestic economy needed a boost.
Currencies/fixed income
- EU markets were close for Good Friday holiday and FX price action was listless.
- EUR/USD steady at 1.0775 area despite a dramatic decline in French Mar Preliminary CPI reading which kept a possible April ECB easing on the back burner.
- USD/JPY steady at 151.30 with 152 level being the key resistance. The yen weakened dramatically over the quarter. Japanese authorities continued to warn against declines in the currency that were not based upon fundamentals.
Economic data
- (TR) Turkey Feb Trade Balance: -$6.8B v -$7.0Be.
- (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account Balance: $2.0B v $1.5Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BoP): $1.1B v $0.8B prior; Trade Account Balance: +$1.7B v -$1.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: 2.5% v 7.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: 3.1% v 1.5% prior.
- (TH) Thailand Mar Foreign Reserves w/e Mar 22nd: $223.6B v $223.8B prior.
- (CN) Weekly Shanghai Copper Inventories (SHFE): 290.2K v 285.1K tons prior.
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.3 % v 2.6%e (slowest annual pace since Sept 2021).
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.8%e.
- (FR) France Feb PPI M/M: -1.7% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -5.5% v -4.9% prior.
- (FR) France Feb Consumer Spending M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.6%e.
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 22nd (RUB): 18.12T v 18.02T prior.
- (PL) Poland Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.3%e.
- (GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -8.9% v +0.8% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.3% v 7.6% prior.
- (GR) Greece Feb PPI Y/Y: -5.3% v -7.0% prior.
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e.
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.2% v 1.4%er; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e.
Fixed iIncome issuance
- None seen.
Looking ahead
- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Mar 22nd: No est v $642.5B prior.
- 08:30 (US) Feb Personal Income: 0.4%e v 1.0% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): +0.1%e v -0.1% prior.
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Deflator M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.4% prior.
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Core Deflator M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.8% prior.
- 08:30 (US) Feb Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%).
- 08:30 (US) Feb Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$90.0Be v -$90.5B prior (revised from -$90.2B).
- 09:00 (RU) Russia Q4 Final Current Account: No est v $11.1B prelim (revised from $10.7B).
- 09:00 (UK) No Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index (UK holiday).
- 11:00 (US) Mar Kansas City Fed Services Activity: No est v 12 prior.
- 11:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell.
Weekend
- (CN) China Mar Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official): 50.1e v 49.1 prior; Non-Manufacturing PMI: 51.4e v 51.4 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 50.9 prior.
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