EUR/USD Price Forecast: Next key support comes at 1.1400
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UPGRADE- EUR/USD trades in an inconclusive mood in the 1.1540-1.1530 band.
- The US Dollar advances marginally just above the key 100.00 hurdle.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside in September (+119K).
EUR/USD’s decline faltered just ahead of the key contention zone at 1.1500 on Thursday, managing to regain some composure afterwards and climb to the 1.1540 zone following the closing bell in Europe.
Meanwhile, the pair’s lack of a clear bias comes amid acceptable gains in the Greenback, which saw its earlier upside impulse lose momentum following the mixed results from the US labour market report in September, all against the backdrop of diminishing bets for another rate reduction by the Federal Reserve at its December 10 event.
Shutdown ends… sort of
Washington has finally brought the 43-day shutdown to a close, though calling it a clean resolution feels like a stretch. Congress only funded the government through January 30, meaning the clock has already started ticking toward the next fiscal showdown.
This episode also flipped the usual script. Budget standoffs are typically driven by Republicans, but this time it was Democrats who pushed things to the brink. And almost lost amid the noise is a bigger picture issue: The national debt has climbed to around $38 trillion and is expanding by roughly $1.8 trillion a year.
Senate Democrats argued the economic fallout , delayed benefits, missed paycheques, and stalled services were worth it if they forced a debate over soaring health insurance costs for roughly 24 million Americans. Republicans, meanwhile, took the position normally associated with Democrats, insisting the economic damage wasn’t worth the standoff.
A breather in US–China tensions
After months of back-and-forth escalation, Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping finally met in South Korea in late October, offering markets a rare moment of calm. The two agreed to extend the current truce in the US–China trade war. It’s not a resolution, but it at least halts further deterioration.
Following the meeting, Trump said the US would roll back some tariffs, while China agreed to resume soybean purchases, maintain rare-earth exports and boost cooperation on fentanyl controls.
Beijing later confirmed the ceasefire would hold for another year. It doesn’t resolve the deeper issues, but it does show both sides are opting for dialogue over fresh escalation, at least for now.
The Fed keeps its guard up
The Federal Reserve delivered exactly what markets were looking for at its 29 October meeting: A 25 basis point rate cut and the restart of light Treasury purchases to smooth money-market pressures.
The vote came in at 10–2, bringing the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) down to 3.75%–4.00%. Policymakers presented the move as a precaution rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the wide range of views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and cautioned markets against assuming a December cut is a done deal.
The latest Minutes show a divided Fed proceeding with October’s cut even as some officials worried that moving too soon could undermine efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target, a goal that’s been out of reach for more than four years.
Right now, markets are pricing in nearly a 70% chance of another cut in December and about 88 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.
ECB happy to stay put
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.00% for a third straight meeting. With growth and inflation hovering near target, and after delivering 200 basis points of cuts earlier this year, officials see little need to adjust policy again.
ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that global risks have eased somewhat thanks to the US–China truce and selective US tariff rollbacks, but she also emphasised that uncertainty remains high.
Market pricing now sees nearly a 98% probability that the central bank leave its rates on hold in December, and nearly 7 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2026, essentially signalling that investors think the ECB is done cutting for the foreseeable future.
Tech corner
The likelihood of further declines remains well in place for EUR/USD in the short-term horizon.
That said, the next support of note is seen at the November base at 1.1468 (November 5) ahead of the 200-day SMA at 1.1398, which is closely followed by the August trough at 1.1391 (August 1). The loss of the latter could spark a potential decline to the weekly low at 1.1210 (May 29) prior to the May valley at 1.1064 (May 12).
On the other hand, initial resistance sits at the November high at 1.1656 (November 13), a region coincident with the temporary 55-day and 100-day SMAs. Further up come the weekly peaks at 1.1668 (October 28) and 1.1728 (October 17), all before the October ceiling at 1.1778 (October 1).
Momentum indicators point to extra retracements in the near term: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) weakens to nearly the 41 level, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 14 keeps indicating a trend that lacks vigour.
To sum up
EUR/USD is still circling the same range it’s been in for weeks, and it’ll take something genuinely meaningful to shake it loose: A change in the Fed’s tone, a broader improvement in global risk appetite, or a clearer shift toward Eurozone assets over US ones could all do the trick. But for the moment, the Greenback is still very much in control.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- EUR/USD trades in an inconclusive mood in the 1.1540-1.1530 band.
- The US Dollar advances marginally just above the key 100.00 hurdle.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside in September (+119K).
EUR/USD’s decline faltered just ahead of the key contention zone at 1.1500 on Thursday, managing to regain some composure afterwards and climb to the 1.1540 zone following the closing bell in Europe.
Meanwhile, the pair’s lack of a clear bias comes amid acceptable gains in the Greenback, which saw its earlier upside impulse lose momentum following the mixed results from the US labour market report in September, all against the backdrop of diminishing bets for another rate reduction by the Federal Reserve at its December 10 event.
Shutdown ends… sort of
Washington has finally brought the 43-day shutdown to a close, though calling it a clean resolution feels like a stretch. Congress only funded the government through January 30, meaning the clock has already started ticking toward the next fiscal showdown.
This episode also flipped the usual script. Budget standoffs are typically driven by Republicans, but this time it was Democrats who pushed things to the brink. And almost lost amid the noise is a bigger picture issue: The national debt has climbed to around $38 trillion and is expanding by roughly $1.8 trillion a year.
Senate Democrats argued the economic fallout , delayed benefits, missed paycheques, and stalled services were worth it if they forced a debate over soaring health insurance costs for roughly 24 million Americans. Republicans, meanwhile, took the position normally associated with Democrats, insisting the economic damage wasn’t worth the standoff.
A breather in US–China tensions
After months of back-and-forth escalation, Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping finally met in South Korea in late October, offering markets a rare moment of calm. The two agreed to extend the current truce in the US–China trade war. It’s not a resolution, but it at least halts further deterioration.
Following the meeting, Trump said the US would roll back some tariffs, while China agreed to resume soybean purchases, maintain rare-earth exports and boost cooperation on fentanyl controls.
Beijing later confirmed the ceasefire would hold for another year. It doesn’t resolve the deeper issues, but it does show both sides are opting for dialogue over fresh escalation, at least for now.
The Fed keeps its guard up
The Federal Reserve delivered exactly what markets were looking for at its 29 October meeting: A 25 basis point rate cut and the restart of light Treasury purchases to smooth money-market pressures.
The vote came in at 10–2, bringing the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) down to 3.75%–4.00%. Policymakers presented the move as a precaution rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed the wide range of views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and cautioned markets against assuming a December cut is a done deal.
The latest Minutes show a divided Fed proceeding with October’s cut even as some officials worried that moving too soon could undermine efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target, a goal that’s been out of reach for more than four years.
Right now, markets are pricing in nearly a 70% chance of another cut in December and about 88 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.
ECB happy to stay put
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.00% for a third straight meeting. With growth and inflation hovering near target, and after delivering 200 basis points of cuts earlier this year, officials see little need to adjust policy again.
ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that global risks have eased somewhat thanks to the US–China truce and selective US tariff rollbacks, but she also emphasised that uncertainty remains high.
Market pricing now sees nearly a 98% probability that the central bank leave its rates on hold in December, and nearly 7 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2026, essentially signalling that investors think the ECB is done cutting for the foreseeable future.
Tech corner
The likelihood of further declines remains well in place for EUR/USD in the short-term horizon.
That said, the next support of note is seen at the November base at 1.1468 (November 5) ahead of the 200-day SMA at 1.1398, which is closely followed by the August trough at 1.1391 (August 1). The loss of the latter could spark a potential decline to the weekly low at 1.1210 (May 29) prior to the May valley at 1.1064 (May 12).
On the other hand, initial resistance sits at the November high at 1.1656 (November 13), a region coincident with the temporary 55-day and 100-day SMAs. Further up come the weekly peaks at 1.1668 (October 28) and 1.1728 (October 17), all before the October ceiling at 1.1778 (October 1).
Momentum indicators point to extra retracements in the near term: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) weakens to nearly the 41 level, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 14 keeps indicating a trend that lacks vigour.
To sum up
EUR/USD is still circling the same range it’s been in for weeks, and it’ll take something genuinely meaningful to shake it loose: A change in the Fed’s tone, a broader improvement in global risk appetite, or a clearer shift toward Eurozone assets over US ones could all do the trick. But for the moment, the Greenback is still very much in control.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
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