EUR/USD: looking for a reason to re-buy the greenback
|EUR/USD Current price: 1.0612
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The American dollar is regaining some ground ahead of the US opening, after being under pressure at the beginning of the day, on a spike of risk aversion. News that a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit the Fukushima region in Japan, followed by a small tsunami, triggered demand for safe-haven assets, putting the greenback and stocks under moderate selling pressure. Still, and given that the earthquake did not affect the nuclear plant, the movements were mitigated after London´s opening.
There were no major releases during the European morning, although comments from upcoming US president, Donald Trump, indicated that he is willing to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, and in exchange, search for "fair, bilateral trade deals." The news initially weighed on the greenback, but not that much. The US will release some housing and manufacturing data after Wall Street's opening that can set the tone for the rest of the day.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair retreated from a fresh weekly high of 1.0657 and trades in the 1.0610 region, confined to a tight consolidative range and with the risk still towards the downside, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is still unable to settle beyond a bearish 100 SMA, currently at 1.0640, while technical indicators are flat within bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price is hovering back and forth around a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators head modestly lower but within neutral territory, with no directional strength. A break below 1.0590 should favor another leg lower, towards the 1.0505/20 price zone.
Support levels: 1.0590 1.0560 1.0520
Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0690 1.0730
GBP/USD Current price: 1.2433
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The GBP/USD pair advanced up to 1.2512 this Tuesday, but once again faltered above the key 1.25 mark, accelerating now its slide towards the 1.2400 level. The short term picture for the pair is bearish, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price has broken below a now bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators present sharp bearish slopes within negative territory, supporting some further slides on a break below 1.2410, the immediate support. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is also biased lower, given that technical indicators have turned south, and are currently entering bearish territory, while the 20 SMA also turned south, but below the current level, pretty much neutral at the time being. The pair can extend its slide on a break below the 1.2410 level, albeit it would take an extension below 1.2330, quite unlikely for today, to confirm a steeper decline in the Pound.
Support levels: 1.2410 1.2375 1.2330
Resistance levels: 1.2460 1.2500 1.2530
USD/JPY Current price: 111.00
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The USD/JPY pair has fell down to 110.26 this Tuesday, after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Japan early in the Asian morning, fueling demand for the JPY, on fears local business will need the capital to rebuild any possible damage. Fortunately, there were no major damages in the country, and the pair recovered on relief during the London session. Still struggling to regain the 111.00 level, the 1 hour chart shows that the pair is mostly consolidating, with the price well above a bullish 100 SMA, and the Momentum indicator heading north above its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator consolidates around 55, all of which limits chances of a downward move. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator has bounced sharply from its 100 level, but remains well below its recent highs, while the RSI stands pat around 61,a s the price develops far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. The pair needs to rally beyond 111.45, May's high, to be able to extend its gains, pointing for a rally up to the 114.00 region.
Support levels: 110.50 110.00 109.60
Resistance levels: 111.10 111.45 111.90
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7388
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The AUD/USD pair rallied up to 0.7413, surpassing briefly Friday's high on the back of dollar's weakness, trading now a few pips below the 0.7400 figure. The short term picture shows that the upward momentum faded, despite the price holds into positive territory daily basis, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is pressuring a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators retreat from overbought readings and are now poised to enter bearish territory. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have also turned south, with the Momentum around its mid-line and the RSI indicator at 43, while the price is still holding above a bearish 20 SMA. Overall, the risk is towards the downside, with scope to test the 0.7250 region on a break below 0.7330 a strong Fibonacci support.
Support levels: 0.7330 0.7290 0.7250
Resistance levels: 0.7400 0.7440 0.7485
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