EUR/USD: challenging 1.1190 resistance
|EUR/USD Current price: 1.1180
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Following a dull first half of the day, the forex market got in motion ahead of Wall Street's opening, following the release of a batch of US data. With several European countries on holiday, majors were trading traded within limited ranges, although the dollar was marginally lower against all of its major rivals, but the Pound, suffering from diminishing hopes of FED's action after Friday's dismal data. US New York Empire manufacturing index came in at -4.21 for August, worse than the 2.50 expected or the previous 0.55, adding pressure over the American currency.
The EUR/USD pair spiked up to 1.1185 with the news, struggling around the major resistance region, the post-Brexit highs in between 1.1180 and 1.1190 that contained rallies for over a month. Low summer volumes are being exacerbated by the holiday, so not much is expected for today. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is holding above the 1.1160 region, the 23.6% retracement of the latest weekly rally and the 20 SMA in the mentioned time frame, whilst the technical indicators head modestly higher within positive territory, with limited upward momentum. In the 4 hours chart the 20 SMA has turned flat, also around the 1.1160 region, reinforcing the support area, whilst the technical indicators aim modestly higher above their mid-lines, maintaining the downside limited.
Support levels: 1.1160 1.1125 1.1090
Resistance levels: 1.1190 1.1235 1.1280
GBP/USD Current price: 1.2878
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The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.2882 early Europe, extending its decline through the level ahead of the US opening, despite US data missed expectations. Rumors over the weekend suggesting that the UK will delay the Brexit process due to political uncertainty, have fueled the decline in the pair from a fundamental point of view, whilst the break of the 1.2900 level added from the technical side. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remained capped by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators resumed their declines, now within bearish territory, supporting a downward extension for today. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA accelerated its decline above the current level, whilst the RSI is currently around 29, in line with the shorter term outlook.
Support levels: 1.2870 1.2830 1.2790
Resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2940 1.2985
USD/JPY Current price: 101.15
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Upside limited below 101.40. The USD/JPY pair traded sub 101.00 ahead of US data releases, bouncing afterwards but neutral daily basis and confined to a tight range. Japan released its preliminary growth figures for the second quarter of the year, showing that growth slowed at an annualized rate of 0.2%, against expectations of a 0.7% advance and a previously revised 2.0%. June's industrial production rose by 2.3% against previous 1.9% while compared to a year before, it came in at -1.5% against previous -1.9%. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators turned modestly higher within bearish territory, not enough to confirm further gains. In the 4 hours chart, indicators are neutral around their mid-lines, whilst the 100 SMA has extended its decline far above the current level. The risk remains towards the downside, with a break below 110.65 required to trigger stops and see the price extending down to 100.00. Above 101.40 on the other hand, the bearish risk will diminish short term, with the pair then poised to correct higher up to 102.00.
Support levels: 101.00 100.65 100.20
Resistance levels: 101.40 101.95 102.35
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7665
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The AUD/USD pair recovered from a daily low of 0.7637, supported by oil's strength as the commodity continues trading around $44.50 a barrel, following the impressive recovery seen late last week. The pair, however, is unable to recover above the 0.7700 level, retreating now and looking short term bearish, as the price is barely holding above a bearish 20 SMA, and the technical indicators heading lower in the 1 hour chart. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish momentum is clearer, with the 20 SMA turning south above the current level, and indicators heading lower within negative territory.
Support levels: 0.7635 07600 0.7570
Resistance levels: 0.7700 0.7740 0.7790
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