AUD/USD – Australian dollar resumes downturn after soft Chinese numbers
|AUD/USD has returned to its losing ways in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6917, down 0.40% on the day. On the fundamentals front, Australian Wage Price Index remained pegged at 0.5%, shy of the estimate of 0.6%. In the U.S., the markets are braced for soft consumer spending numbers. Retail sales is projected slow to 0.2%, down from 1.6% in the previous release. Core retail sales is projected to drop to 0.7%, compared to 1.2% in March. Thursday will be busy, as the U.S. posts building permits, unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
It’s been a rough week for the Australian dollar, which has slipped 1.2% and continues to set new lows in 2019. The currency sagged on Monday after the U.S. slapped new tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods, with China quickly retaliating with tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. products. There was more bad news out of China on Wednesday, as industrial production and retail sales missed expectations. Industrial production fell to 5.4% in April, well short of the estimate of 6.5%. This reading dropped from 8.5% a month earlier. Retail sales also slipped to 7.2%, down from 8.7% in March. This was much lower than the forecast of 8.6%. The Aussie is sensitive to Chinese data, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. AUD/USD has posted four straight losing weeks and the pair remains under strong pressure this week.
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AUD/USD Fundamentals
Tuesday (May 14)
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20:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Actual 0.6%
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21:30 Australian Wage Price Index. Estimate 0.6%
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22:00 Chinese Industrial Production. Estimate 6.5%. Actual 5.4%
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22:00 Chinese Retail Sales. Estimate 8.6%. Actual 7.2%
Wednesday (May 15)
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8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
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8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
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8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.2
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9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.7%
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9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.0%
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9:30 US FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
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10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.0%
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10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 64
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10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.0M
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16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 36.3B
Thursday (May 16)
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8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.29M
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8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 220K
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8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 10.0
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8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.21M
Open: 0.6944 High: 0.6948 Low: 0.6915 Close: 0.6917
AUD/USD Technical
|
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
0.67686 |
0.6744 |
0.6825 |
0.6968 |
0.7085 |
0.7190 |
AUD/USD has edged lower in the Asian and European sessions
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0.6825 is providing support
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0.6968 is the next resistance line
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Current range: 0.6825 to 0.6968
Further levels in both directions:
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Below: 0.6825, 0.6744 and 0.6686
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Above: 0.6968, 0.7085, 0.7190 and 0.7240
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