Asian EQ rebound on quiet newsflow as markets settle post-Fed
|General trend and developments
- Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia saw strong equity gains from the open, Nikkei outperformed up as much as +1.8% with financials leading. Later pared gains to be +1.0% up. Shanghai Composite unperformed -0.5% even as Hang Seng outperformed +1.5%
- Early in Asia trading Pres Trump via Exec Order confirmed a US AI national standards framework designed to supersede the patchwork quilt of AI standards mushrooming up around the US over the past year or so. The federal standard is designed to keep the US in the lead in the AI race, especially against China.
- Overnight it was announced out of China that the Central Economic Work Conference had been held. Further fiscal expansion likely as China will maintain the necessary fiscal deficits, utilize RRR and interest-rate cuts as the country “still faces economic challenges”.
- Further green shoots out of New Zealand with a healthy rise in Nov card spending, manufacturing PMI staying in expansion for a second month, and a 2% rise in the minimum wage next April.
- “Japan Inc.” further ramps up national efforts to break back into the highest level of chip-making with an R&D base for advanced chips to be built in Hokkaido, while state-backed chipmaker Rapidus reportedly to receive up to ¥2T in loans from Japanese Megabanks as it chases mass production of 2nm chips by 2027.
- Japanese yield curve softer early on today, but later the front end rose in a flattening of the curve, amid yet another Japanese consumer company set to raise some product prices by double digits (Ajinomoto).
- China PBOC again set the Yuan at the strongest level since Oct 9th, 2024, as the offshore Yuan moved pierced the 7.04 handle.
- India Central Bank again seen selling dollars to protect the Rupee as it hit fresh record lows of 90.71 vs USD.
- US equity FUTs flat to -0.2% during Asian trading.
JP Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)
- Fri Dec 12th UK Oct GDP, IN Nov CPI.
Holidays in Asia this week
- Mon Dec 8th Philippines.
- Wed Dec 10th Thailand.
Headlines/economic data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opens +0.9% at 8.668.
- New Zealand raises minimum wage 2% to NZ$23.95/hr, effective April 1st, 2026.
- New Zealand Nov Total Card Spending M/M: 1.9% v 0.2% prior.
- New Zealand Nov Manufacturing PMI: 51.4 v 51.2 prior (2nd month of expansion).
- RBNZ to release capital settings review decisions on Dec 17th.
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opens +0.9% at 25, 761; Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 3,869.
- China state-iron buyer (CMRG) said to seek higher port fees for miners, aiming to discourage stockpiling at ports - financial press.
- Largest automakers urge US Congress to prevent China govt-backed battery makers from entering US for manufacturing - press cites industry association.
- (MX) Mexico Pres Sheinbaum: Mexico tariffs are not only targeted at China; Tariffs aim to increase local production.
- US exporters sell 264K MT of soybeans to China for 2025/2026 deliveries - press (update.
- China held Central Economic Work Conference; China Pres Xi said to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit, country still facing economic challenges; To utilize RRR cuts, Interest-Rate cuts flexibly [overnight update].
- China leads objections to Trump's reprieve on global minimum tax – press [overnight update].
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China faces challenge from supply chain adjustment [overnight update].
- China MOF sells 2-Year and 10-year bonds.
- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0638 v 7.0686 prior (strongest since Oct 9th, 2024).
- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY121B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY19.3B v drains CNY62B prior.
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opens +0.7% at 50,480.
- Japan Finance Min Katayama: Confirms will review various special measures for corporate tax.
- Japan Trade Min Akazawa: To make R&D base for advanced chips in Hokkaido.
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Govt stance is consistent on "survival-threatening issue" (relates to Taiwan and tensions with China) - financial press.
- Rapidus: Reportedly to receive up to ¥2T in loans from Japanese Megabanks - press.
- Japanese Defense Chief spoke with US counterpart Hegseth over China radar incident; Affirmed close cooperation.
- Japan sells ¥4.3T vs. ¥4.3T indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.6241% v 0.6260% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.42x v 3.80x prior.
Korea
- Kospi opens +0.3% at 4,123.
- South Korea Nov Export Price Index M/M: 3.7% v 4.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.0% v 4.8% prior.
- South Korea appoints Kim Sung-joo as new head of NPS (National Pension Service) - financial press.
- South Korea Fin Min Koo Yun-cheol: Will seek the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund in H1 2026 [overnight update].
- South Korea Finance Ministry on issuance: 55-60% of the KRW225.7T in government bond issuance for 2026 will be issued in H1 [overnight update].
- South Korea sells 50-year Bonds: Avg Yield: 3.140%.
Other Asia
- (IN) India RBI seen selling dollars to support Rupee (peak intraday low of 90.71 a fresh record low vs USD) - traders.
- Taiwan Central Bank (CBC): Bitcoin is 'unfit' for FX reserves - Local media- Follow up: Indonesia Chief Trade Negotiator Hartarto: Aiming to finalize US trade deal by end-2025 - financial press.
- Thailand PM Spokesperson: PM has moved to dissolve parliament due to deadlock with main opposition; Paves the way for an early vote (update)
- PHILIPPINES CENTRAL BANK (BSP) CUTS OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.50%; AS EXPECTED [overnight update].
- Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Remolona: Rate cut to help revive economy a bit in 2026 and 2027 - post rate decision press conference [overnight update].
North America
- (US) White House: US Pres Trump signs EO to increase oversight to restore public confidence in the proxy advisor industry.
- (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%; as expected.
- US Pres Trump: Signs order on AI national standards; Order ensures AI can operate within a single national framework; Will make a big signing related to AI; There'll be one winner in AI, China or the US.
- (CA) Canada Conservative MP Michael Ma said to move to Liberal party; Carney is now 1 seat short of a majority.
- (US) Reportedly US Pres Trump to push loosening Fed restrictions on marijuana; Order will not legalize or decriminalize marijuana - Washington Post.
- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent said planning major overhaul of Fin Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), to push for looser regulation and a freer approach to oversight - CNBC.
- (US) Sept Trade Balance: -$52.8B v -$63.1Be (smallest deficit since June 2020).
- (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 236K V 220KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.84M V 1.94ME.
- (MX) Mexico Pres Sheinbaum: Mexico tariffs are not only targeted at China; Tariffs aim to increase local production.
- (US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -177 BCF VS. -166 BCF TO -173 BCF INDICATED RANGE.
- OpenAI CEO Altman: Gemini 3 has had less of an impact on our metrics than we had originally feared; New ChatGPT model will do the knowledge work needed to accelerate economy; Not opposed to idea of public release of revenues, but not near that decision yet; Excited about our upcoming chip but nothing to offer on release date today - CNBC.
- (US) TREASURY $22B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.773% V 4.734% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.36 V 2.38 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS.
- (VE) Reportedly US planning to seize more ships handling Venezuelan oil; Actions would target tankers that have handled other sanctioned crude, such as Iranian - press.
Europe
- (IE) Ireland Nov CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.9% prior.
- (TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) CUTS ONE WEEK REPO RATE BY 150BPS TO 38.00%; MORE-THAN-EXPECTED.
- (IT) Italian Treasury: Italy said to reach deal with ECB over budget amendment on ownership of Bank of Italy's gold reserves; Italy's Econ Min Giorgetti had discussed gold reserves with ECB - press.
Levels as of 01:20 ET
- Nikkei 225 +1.0%; ASX 200 +1.2%; Hang Seng +1.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi +1.2%.
- Equity S&P500 Futures flat; Nasdaq100 -0.2%; DAX +0.5%; FTSE100 flat.
- EUR 1.1731.117.47; JPY 155.55-155.77; AUD 0.6660-0.6675; NZD 0.5806-5821.
- Gold -0.3% at $4,298/oz; BTC +2.3% at $92,470; Crude Oil +0.8% at $58.03/bbl; Copper -0.3% at $5.4710/lb.
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