When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?
|December month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the key catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been keeping a close eye on the jobs report, coupled with the latest bushfires, extremely downbeat data will increase the odds of further rate cuts in 2020.
Market consensus favors Employment Change to decline to 15.0K from 39.9K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely staying unchanged to 5.2%. Also, no change is anticipated in 66.00% Participation Rate. It should also be noted that January month Consumer Inflation Expectations, expected 3.8% versus 4.0% prior, will also join the headline job reports to decorate the economic calendar.
Westpac stays modestly pessimistic ahead of the release as their analysts say,
The December labor force survey for Australia (11:30 am Sydney/8:30am Singapore/HK) is expected to see the trend deceleration in employment growth apparent since May persists. Following November’s outsized 37k gain, we look for a 5k decline in December (market +12k). Holding participation flat, the unemployment rate is likely to lift to 5.3%.
The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) highlight the importance of the data:
A gain of 10k or less for the month would confirm a sharp slowing in employment growth since Q2 and Q3 last year. While employment is a lagging indicator, a sharp slowdown will cast doubt on the sustainability of the economy’s modest revival.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Given the likely downside impact of the Australian bushfires on the employment data, actually weaker releases might offer fewer losses to the Aussie, except being too pessimistic. On the contrary, surprisingly positive data will have a high impact considering the pair’s recent declines and a need for a pullback.
Technically, an upward sloping trend line since early-October highlights the importance of 0.6830 as the key support holding the key to pair’s further downside to sub-0.6800 area. Alternatively, buyers will refrain from the big positions unless witnessing a daily closing beyond a 21-day SMA level of 0.6915.
Key Notes
AUD/USD clings to 100-day SMA near 0.6845 ahead of Aussie employment data
AUD/USD Forecast: Employment and inflation data could rock the Aussie
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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