When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?
|Early Tuesday morning, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release a minutes statement of the latest monetary policy meeting held during early-February. With the mildly positive tone of the RBA statement as well as Governor Philip Lowe receding the risk of an immediate rate cut, traders will be keenly observing details of the catalysts behind the move. In doing so, their motto could keep being the forecast of further rate cuts.
Westpac dims the importance of the details while saying,
Market interest in the minutes will be limited by the fact that since the statement released after the meeting, we have heard Governor Lowe deliver a keynote speech, parliamentary testimony and panel appearance, along with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
On the other hand, TD Securities mentioned:
The RBA releases Minutes from its Feb meeting. The RBA has displayed a preference to more clearly outline its thinking via Minutes than via the monthly statement, so the Minutes of the first RBA meeting for the year will be required reading. The wave of communication post the 4th Feb meeting reinforced the bar to easing is high. However, we will look for any signs that would force the RBA to reconsider its stance.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
Despite the Aussie central bank’s measured optimism, coronavirus risk continues to weigh on the AUD/USD and can keep pushing the RBA towards another cautious stunt in its upcoming gathering. However, traders might await Wednesday’s Wage Price Index and Thursday’s employment statistics for fresh impulse.
That said, AUD/USD continues to remain on the back foot below a seven-week-old falling trend line and 21-day SMA, respectively near 0.6725 and 0.6752.
Key Notes
AUD/USD remains under pressure around 0.6720 with eyes on RBA minutes
AUD/USD Forecast: Bearish pressure mounts
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
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