USD/JPY: While macro is muddy, trend is likely to be for stronger JPY - Danske Bank
|Analysts at Danske Bank, expect global sentiment to remain the key driver in the USD/JPY as risk-off, commodity sell-off and falling US rates run together and amplify each other to take pair lower.
Key Quotes:
“Major but quarterly trends in global sentiment have shifted USD/JPY around. The Q4 18 risk-off took the cross from 113 to 108. Risk-on over Q1 took it back to 112 and the most recent sell-off has moved it back to nearly 109. We expect a volatile recovery to 112 over 12M but over 3M, the trend is likely risk off.”
“Global macro data is not coming in as good as hoped and positioning in JPY puts some risk in the cross to move to the January lows around 107.5.”
The JPY outlook is somewhat skewed on the downside. We forecast USD/JPY at 109.5 in 1M and probably even stronger in the coming quarter. The forecast reflects expectations of a globally slightly positive scenario over 12M but with headwinds as of today.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.