USD/JPY technical analysis: Struggles near 100-period SMA on H4, below mid-107.00s amid risk-off mood
|- The pair adds to last week’s retracement losses amid reviving safe-haven demand.
- A goodish pickup in the USD demand helped limit deeper losses, at least for now.
The USD/JPY pair held on to its weaker tone through the early North-American session, albeit has managed to rebound around 20 pips from daily lows. Reviving safe-haven demand, amid worries over global economic growth, boosted demand for traditional safe-haven currencies - like the Japanese Yen - and contributed to the pair's follow-through retracement from multi-week tops set last week.
The pair slipped below last week's bearish gap opening lows support near the 107.45 region - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the 104.45-108.48 recent recovery move from multi-year lows. However, resurgent USD demand helped the pair to find some support near 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid relatively quieter trading action.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been drifting lower within the negative territory and also lost their bullish momentum on the daily chart, suggesting the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend. Sustained weakness below the mentioned support, currently near the 107.30 region, will further reinforce the bearish outlook and prompt some aggressive technical selling.
The pair might then accelerate the downfall further towards testing a previous strong resistance breakpoint - near the 106.60 horizontal zone, with some intermediate support near the 38.2% Fibo. level around the 107.00-106.90 region. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards challenging the 106.00 round-figure mark in the near-term - coinciding with 61.8% Fibo. level.
On the flip side, immediate resistance is now pegged near the 100-day SMA, around the 107.90 region, which if cleared decisively might now set the stage for a move beyond the recent swing highs - around mid-108.00s - towards reclaiming the 109.00 round-figure mark en-route the very important 200-day SMA barrier, currently near the 109.30 region.
USD/JPY 4-hourly chart
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