USD/CAD: Bulls defending 38.2% Fibo ahead of key jobs data Friday
|- USD/CAD bounced from the 38.2% Fibo target at 1.3296 and has met the week's resistance, stalling there at this juncture ahead of jobs data, both domestic and for the US.
- USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3359 and has travelled between a range of 1.3364 and 1.3372.
USD/CAD had pierced back above the 50% Fibo on WTI stalling at a critical technical juncture, however, bulls have run out of steam, taking profits ahead of Friday's jobs data from both Canada and the US. At the same time, the Ivey PMI in Canada in March climbed to 54.3 (seasonally adjusted) from 50.6 in February and bettered the analysts' estimate of 51.1, helping the Loonie to fend-off extra demand for USD/CAD on the last day ahead of the jobs data showdown.
NFPs outlook
While Canadian unemployment is key, the main focus will be on US jobs:
"Markets are focusing on the upcoming release of the US nonfarm payroll data. Expectations are for US nonfarm jobs to lift by 180,000 following weak February data, which would put job numbers back near the three month average," analysts at ANZ Bank explained, adding, "Whilst jobs momentum gives a good proxy of underlying growth in the economy, fixed income markets will be keenly watching the average hourly earnings print. Hourly earnings jumped to 3.4% y/y in February, its highest level since April 2009 and if that were to rise further inflation would be a concern."
USD/CAD levels
USD/CAD daily chart shows interest for a break above the 50% Fibo target and above 1.3380. A break there will open the descending resistance line guarding the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3435 and then space to 1.3470/81 March highs. A break there opens risk of an extension within the rising weekly channel that will test the 78.6% Fibo at 1.3534 and then the 1.3660s Dec/Jan double top. However, a break of 38.2% opens 1.3250 guarding the 23.5% Fibo and 200 DMA confluence area in the low 1.32s.
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