US Dollar Index remains below 98.50 due to risk aversion, S&P Global PMI eyed
|- US Dollar Index moves little after losing 0.5% in the previous session.
- Traders await the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reading due later on Friday.
- US GDP annualized expanded 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above expectations and the prior 4.3% reading.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after registering 0.5% losses in the previous session. The DXY is hovering around 98.30 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders await the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which will be released later on Friday.
On the data front, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized grew at 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, slightly more than expected and the previous reading of 4.3%. Additionally, the Initial Jobless Claims came in at 200K last week, below the market consensus of 212K.
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.8% year-over-year in November from 2.7% in October. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index rose by 0.2%. The annual core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose by 2.8% in November, following the 2.7% increase recorded in October and matching the market expectation.
The Greenback faces challenges due to ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions between the United States (US) and Europe. US President Donald Trump first warned several European nations opposing his Greenland takeover plan of fresh tariffs, but later reversed his stance after reaching a framework agreement with NATO for a possible future deal.
However, the US-NATO deal remains unclear, with markets speculating it may include mineral rights and missile deployments. Meanwhile, market analysts warn that Europe could use its large holdings of US assets as leverage, after a Danish pension fund said it would divest from US Treasuries, heightening market uncertainty.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an 95% chance of a rate hold on Wednesday.
(This story was corrected on January 23 at 10:27 GMT to say that markets are pricing in an 95% chance of a rate hold on Wednesday, not a rate cut.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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