Time has run out
|S&P 500 rebounded Friday as called, right off the opening bell as expected. Breadth improved – have the bulls any reason to rejoice? Energy, tech and some real estate advancing, can that be enough? What about that weakness into the closing bell and VIX retreat? I talked bonds and dollar for directional clues in equities – they‘re a bit at odds as riskier bonds aren‘t rallying, but neither is the dollar even if rate cut odds went to less than a coin toss for Dec FOMC (significantly down from being baked in the cake only a monht ago).
Sure Waller wanted to cut in Jul, and the Fed is behind the curve in rate cutting as inflation isn‘t really raging following tariffs – and given the macroeconomic signs and the shape of the consumer or the job market, the Fed wouldn‘t be ill advised to support the economy, jobs and real estate… while looking the other way as regards inflation that didn‘t turn into a problem yet. Fed isn‘t yet capitulating to a dire necessity to cut.
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