NZD/USD: Indecisive around mid-0.7200s, looks to China PMI for fresh clues
|- NZD/USD fades bounce off the latest 15-pip trading range around 0.7250.
- Market sentiment dwindles amid mixed catalysts, US dollar strength.
- New Zealand’s ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rallies to pre-pandemic top in April.
- China NBS Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI will offer immediate direction.
NZD/USD sellers attack the lower end of the immediate trading range between 0.7240 and 0.7255 amid the initial Asian session on Friday. Even so, the kiwi pair fails to portray a decisive move with a 0.04% intraday loss by the press time.
The reason could be traced from the mixed catalysts affecting the market sentiment as well as upbeat New Zealand data.
Among the risk catalysts, doubts over China’s curbs on big technology firms and AstraZeneca’s struggle to get second regulatory approval for its covid vaccine recently weigh on the risk-on mood. On the positive side, BioNTech Chief’s vaccine optimism over the Indian strain of the coronavirus (COVID-19) as well as Wall Street’s upbeat performance battles the bears.
Talking about data, The OZ nation’s ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for April jumps 115.8 from 110.8 prior. In doing so, the sentiment gauge rallies to the highest since February 2020. On Thursday, preliminary readings of the US Q1 GDP crossed 6.1% upbeat forecast and 4.3% prior with 6.5% figures.
It’s worth mentioning that the gradually firming reflation risk, mainly due to the jump in the US inflation expectations, hopes of further stimulus and upbeat data, seem to recently tame the market optimism. Also, the COVID-19 woes in India and the uneven vaccinations in the West are an extra burden on the traders.
As a result, S&P 500 Futures refrain from following Wall Street’s gains while taking rounds to 4,200 by the press time.
Looking forward, NZD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the risk-related headlines ahead of China’s official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI for April. Forecasts suggest the headlines NBS Manufacturing PMI to ease from 51.9 previous readouts to 51.7 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI may step back from 56.3 to 52.6.
Should data from the key commodity user come in weaker, the latest US dollar recovery may exert additional downside pressure on the NZD/USD prices that currency tease the seven-week top.
Technical analysis
NZD/USD bulls seem tiring ahead of the previous month’s top near 0.7310. However, bears may not risk entries unless witnessing a sustained break below 50-day and 100-day SMA convergence near 0.7165-55.
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