Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD skates on thin ice around $1,800 ahead of key events – Confluence Detector
|- Gold price wavers in a familiar range, but the downside appears favored.
- The USD correction is saving the day for gold bulls ahead of key event risks.
- Gold’s path of least resistance appears down, US jobs data eyed.
Gold price has stalled its two-day relief recovery, as sellers are back in the game amid a risk-on rally on global stocks. Traders have looked past the Fed angst, as upbeat corporate earnings lift the mood. The risk-on flows-driven US dollar demise and retreating Treasury yields are helping put a floor under the gold price. Incoming event risks in the US employment data, BOE and ECB rate decisions, however, will provide a fresh direction in gold price.
Read: Gold back to inflection point
Gold Price: Key levels to watch
The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the gold price is challenging the Fibonacci 61.8% level of the daily range at $1,802 on renewed upside. That is the point where the SMA-50 one-day also hangs around.
If that level is cleared decisively, then bulls will look out for a confluence of the 200-day SMA and Fibonacci 23.6% level of the daily range at $1,806.
The next powerful resistance aligns at $1,809, the intersection of the previous day’s high and Fibonacci 38.2% of the weekly and monthly ranges.
Further up, the 200-4hr SMA at $1,812 will be the level to beat for gold bulls.
On the flip side, the immediate downside cushion is seen at Fibonacci 23.6% of the weekly and monthly ranges at $1,797.
Sellers will then target $1,795, where the 100-day SMA and the previous day’s low meet.
A sharp drop towards $1,789 cannot be ruled out on a breach of the latter. That level is the convergence of the Fibonacci 161.8% of the daily range and daily S2 pivot point.
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About Technical Confluences Detector
The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.
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