Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from three-month top as Russia-linked fears ebb
|- Gold prices consolidate the biggest daily gains in a month amid mixed clues.
- Easing bets on 0.50% Fed-rate-hike in March, Ukraine’s request for meeting with Russia trigger pullback moves.
- Light calendar, rebound in Yields add to the short-term bearish bias.
- Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD corrects before resuming uptrend, focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured around an intraday low of $1,851, paring the heaviest daily jump in a month heading into Monday’s European session.
The yellow metal rallied the previous day as market players rushed towards risk-safety on geopolitical fears emanating from Russia. Adding to the bullish bias were global inflation fears, as well as easing probabilities for a 0.50% rate hike by the Fed following softer US sentiment data.
It should, however, be noted that a sluggish start to the week joined Ukraine’s request to Russia for a meeting to tame the risk-off mood and trigger a pullback in the gold prices from a three-month high.
Even so, US Treasury yields and equities in Asia-Pacific trade mixed while stock futures in the US and Europe print mild gains by the press time.
That said, gold traders await clear updates from Russia, as well as comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for intraday direction. However, major importance will be given to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.
Technical analysis
Although nearly overbought RSI conditions triggered gold’s recent pullback, the metal sellers will undoubtedly wait for a clear downside break of the previous resistance line, near $1,850 to convince markets.
Also acting as a downside filter is a five-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,830 and the key SMAs surrounding $1,818-17.
Although bullish MACD signals keep gold buyers hopeful, a clear downside break of $1,817 won’t hesitate to welcome sellers targeting the previous month’s low near $1,780.
Meanwhile, an upward sloping trend line from early January, near $1,873 guards the immediate advances of the metal, a break of which will direct hold buyers towards the $1,900 round figure.
In a case where gold buyers manage to keep reins past $1,900, tops marked during June and January 2021, respectively near $1,917 and $1,960 will be in focus.
Overall, gold consolidates recent gains but is not out of the woods.
Gold: Four-hour chart
Trend: Pullback expected
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