EUR/USD Price Analysis: Price balancing on a tightrope over the abyss ahead of NFP
|- EUR/USD bears are balancing at a key level on the charts.
- The price is hanging over the edge of the abyss ahead of NFP.
EUR/USD was sold off on Thursday as investors get set for the outcome of Friday's key US event in Nonfarm Payrolls. US yields and the US dollar both rallied as investors dial back the sentiment surrounding a picot from the Federal Reserve. The following illustrates the market structure in the yields, DXY and EUR/USD ahead of the data for today.
US 10-year yield H1 charts
The W-formation, zoomed-in, is bullish as price meets support at the neckline. This is a bearish scenario for cable.
DXY H1 chart
Despite downbeat Initial Jobless Claims, the DXY index, which measures the US dollar vs a basket of currencies, including the pound, rose and extended its gains from the previous day.
On Thursday, the greenback is back above 112.00, recovering from when it was initially falling against most majors at the start of the week before regaining ground. The question here is whether it can extend the gains towards the high of the week through 112.50.
If Friday's NFP is terrible, then the 111 level will potentially come under pressure, whereas if the data is in line, it will be another disappointment for those looking for a Fed pivot and positive for the greenback, bearish for the euro:
EUR/USD H1 chart
As for the single currency, it is consolidated at Thursday's low and back to where the week started out. We may have already seen the high for the week so the focus is on the downside while below 0.9850 or thereabout. Last week's low is near 0.9535 and a break of 0.9650 guards the area for a downside extension:
The daily chart above is bearish while below the trendline resistance, however, the 30 September doji (highlighted on the chart) is a point of structure around the current level that needs to give for a convincing short-term bearish case currently.
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