EUR/CHF stuck in a 1.07/1.09 range ahead of year-end – Danske
|Analysts at Danske Bank forecast the EUR/CHF pair at 1.08 in one month and at 1.10 in a one-year horizon. They see the pair range-bound in the absence of a clear reflation or recovery catalyst.
Key Quotes:
“Positive vaccine news recently caused a significant jump in EUR/CHF but the lack of clear reflation support from the Fed and still no new fiscal boost in the US has left EUR/CHF with little overall direction. The SNB is preparing to continue to sweat out the deflationary pressure in the Swiss economy and intervention remains the key policy tool. With the ECB set to hold rates and opt for other easing tools, Swiss policy rates are also set to stay unchanged at the long-standing -0.75% for an extended period of time.”
“We see EUR/CHF range-bound in the absence of a clear reflation or recovery catalyst, still stuck in a 1.07-1.09 range ahead of year-end. Risks remain asymmetric longer term as the SNB holds the downside in check and a global recovery in 2021 may bring some relief to the undervalued pair. However, we flatten our forecast profile further and we now see EUR/CHF at 1.08 in 1M, 1.09 in 3M (previously 1.08), 1.10 in 6M (was 1.10) and 1.10 in 12M (was 1.12).”
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