AUD/USD battles around 0.7200 and dips towards 0.7170s ahead of Aussie GDP/China’s PMIs
|- The Australian dollar slides from weekly highs above 0.7200 amidst a sour trading day.
- Sentiment shifted negatively as month-end flows boosted the greenback, and US Treasury yields rose.
- AUD/USD Price Forecast: A daily close below 0.7200 to open the door for further losses.
AUD/USD slumps in the North American session, dropping from weekly highs above 0.7200, spurred by a risk-off market mood, on May’s last trading day. At 0.7178, the AUD/USD reflects the greenback’s strength, benefitted by month-end flows and higher US Treasury yields.
US equities remain trading with losses, between 0.46% and 1.80%. Sentiment shifted sour as the Eurozone reported inflation for May, which increased by 8.1% YoY, higher than the 7.8% foreseen, triggering worries about elevated prices and a global stagflation scenario.
In the Asian session, positive news from China showed that May PMIs came better than expected. The Manufacturing PMI printed a solid 49.6, higher than the 49.0 expected. The Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose by 47.8 vs. 45.5 estimations. The previously mentioned, alongside some restrictions lifted in Beijing and Shanghai, paint a hopeful scenario for the second-largest economy and Australia’s largest trading partner.
Chinese data boosted the AUD/USD, which was suffering under some selling pressure, though in the end, it failed to cling to the 0.7200 mark.
On Monday, Fed’s Governor Christopher Waller said he wants to keep hiking rates in 50 bps size until inflation is moving back towards the 2% target. Specifically, he said, “I support tightening policy by another 50 bps for several meetings. In particular, I am not taking 50 bps hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to our 2% target.”
In the day ahead, the Australian economic docket would feature the GDP for Q1. Along with China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May, that data could influence the AUD/USD direction. On the US front, the US economic calendar would feature the US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, US employment data, led by the Nonfarm Payrolls, and the ADP and JOLTs openings report.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD daily chart depicts the pair as neutral-downward biased. Above the 0.7200 mark, AUD/USD buyers would face a firm supply area in the 0.7229-56 region, the confluence of the 50, 100, and the 200-day moving averages (DMAs), a reason for the pair’s dip below 0.7200, as AUD/USD bears stepped in.
If the AUD/USD records a daily close below the 0.7200 mark, that will open the door for further weakness. That said, the AUD/USD first support would be the May 30 low at 0.7152. Once that hurdle cleared, the AUD/USD would tumble towards 0.7100, followed by the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7050.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD first resistance would be 0.7200. A breach of the latter would expose the major to the 0.7229.56 area, the confluence of the above-mentioned DMAs.
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