Weekly Trades and FX Commentary: EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD, CHF/JPY, USD/TRY
|USD/CAD target last week at 1.2201 achieved 1.2176 from the BOC lows on Wednesday at 1.2056 or 120 pips. The target at 1.2201 will complete this week and much more upside to go.
DXY traded 77 pips last week from 89.83 to 90.60 and barely broke above vital 90.24. Low and oversold DXY contains a long way to the brick wall at 95.00. This means all currency pairs as USD/Other Currency to include EM also contains a long only strategy for at least another 400 pips higher.
As EURUSD completed upside and downside targets last week, 1.2134 as written was a huge number due to its proximity at 1.2111. EUR/USD choices was travel to 1.2174 or break 1.2111 and trade lower. As lower bound currencies NZD/USD broke 0.7176 and AUD/USD 0.7707, EUR/USD lacked the option to trade higher and instead broke 1.2111 and traded 20 pips lower.
EUR/USD last 4 week close prices averages 1.2160 and 1.2172 as a median. EUR/USD closed at 1.2107 and 53 pips from its average. EUR/USD closed last week at 1.2165, traded 52 pips to 1.2217 then 73 pips below 1.2165 to 1.2091.
As written January to yearly forecasts upon long term views, the price slowdown and dead ranges anticipated remains into current June. Expect more of the same for the next months.
Yet go back and read the central bank 2016 research to currency price changes and revealed is currency prices are trading as forecast by central banks. The slowdown to prices is exactly what central banks designed. The BOE is best to read due to the full details explained.
Currency prices were not only massively re scaled but the only chances to profit is by economic announcements yet off snyc announcements will offer only a few pips more but overall prices are contained within the new price structure.
A central bank may inform the economy is crashing yet its worth 20 extra pips. Interest rate changes are worth 40 pips. The BOC last Wednesday offered 30 pips. The difference between 1 and 2% Inflation is meaningless.
Knowing the 2016 changes and the January price slowdown, an extensive adjustment began to trades and strategies to allow longs and shorts for daily and weekly trades as demonstrated many times. EUR/USD ranged last week overall 126 pips but we profited much more than 126 pips.
The least of trader worry and concern is economic announcements especially longer range economic views. No need exists anymore to run economic data as this information exists within the price. Plus economic announcements are linearly scaled so an off sync announcement today is meaningless to the longer run term. The market price doesn't care about long term views nor does it hardly care about daily off snyc announcements.
Only 2 factors move the currency price: Interest rates and money supplies and each share an inverse relationship. But never reported. Yet the long winded daily and weekly scribbles in regards to economics is nothing more than pablum and won't earn 2 cents.
The winners in currency markets was EM currencies as USD/OTHER CURRENCY. USD for EM was hit hard over the past 3 weeks and al skyrocketed last week. USD/BRL for example flew from 5.0100 lows to 5.1400's. USD/BRL is one example of many EM currencies to trade 1000's of pips higher.
GBP/NZD
GBP/NZD Correlations to GBP/USD now run +93% to GBP/USD and -94 to USD/CAD. GBP/NZD transformed from a USD pair to current GBP. GBP/NZD is skyrocket overbought to begin the week.
EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD is also massively overbought and Correlations to EUR/USD run -0.08 and -61% to NZD/USD. NZD/USD is richter scale oversold and heading higher this week.
GBP/NZD Weekly Trade
Short Anywhere or 1.9771 to target 1.9610. Must cross 1.9752, 1.9733, 1.9714, 1.9695, 1.9676, 1.9657, 1.9638, 1.9619.
Long 1.9610 to target 1.9659. Not only a weekly trade but offered levels to watch the trade unfold or to take profits when satisfied.
EUR/NZD Wekly Trade
Short Anywhere or 1.6984 and 1.6978 to target 1.6896. Must cross 1.6978, 1.6961, 1.6945, 1.6928, 1.6912 and 1.6904.
Short below 1.6879 to target 1.6813.
Long 1.6813 to target 1.6863.
Long 1.6896 to target 1.6945.
USD/TRY
USD/TRY Short 8.4928 and 8.5120 to target 8.3002.
Giant ranges this week for USD/TRY
Next 24 Hours 8.4388 to 8.3402
Short tops and long bottoms for quick and easy pips to cover next 24 hours.
Weekly Ranges 1540 pips, 0.0770 and 0.0385
CHF/JPY
Short 122.70 and 122.81 to target 121.09
Option exists to long to target 122.70 then short to 121.09
Overall JPY cross pairs remain fairly neutral as seen over the past 3 and 4 weeks.
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