Weekly technical outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, BTC/USD [Video]

• USDJPY on hold near October’s high as Fed, BoJ rate decisions loom
• EURUSD trapped below 20-day SMA; GDP & flash CPI data may overshadow ECB meeting
• BTCUSD rebounds along with US indices as tech earnings season heats up

FOMC & BoJ rate decisions --> USDJPY

It will be a busy week for central bank meetings, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely setting the tone for USDJPY. A mild downside surprise in U.S. CPI data briefly weighed on the pair last Friday as a quarter percentage point rate cut this week was fully priced in. Expectations for an equivalent reduction in December were also high, with the bulls easily recouping mild losses to trade back near October’s peak.

Still, uncertainty around the timing of government data releases and renewed tariff rhetoric from President Trump may leave policymakers divided on the pace of easing. Any comments on the balance sheet runoff could also move the market, though no dot plot or new economic projections are due this time, making clear policy guidance less likely.

In Japan, the BoJ may reassess its tightening outlook after new pro-stimulus Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a fiscal package that may exceed last year’s budget. Softer inflation gives room for pause but talk of policy normalization hasn’t vanished. Investors will watch for signals in the quarterly economic outlook and any headlines from U.S.–Japan trade talks as Trump continues his Asia trip. Investors may also monitor for any pre-meeting policy signals as the BoJ tends to reveal its thinking in advance.

From a technical perspective, the latest swift upturn in USDJPY seems to be running out of steam as the stochastic indicator is set for a negative reversal in the overbought zone. Yet, any declines may not stress investors unless the price tumbles below the protective 20-day SMA near 151.15.

ECB rate decision amid a packed week of data releases --> EURUSD

The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its rate decision on Thursday, a day after the Fed, but no changes are expected as policymakers have clearly communicated their intention to keep borrowing costs steady for the foreseeable future. That said, Q3 GDP growth and October’s flash CPI inflation data—due Thursday and Friday, respectively—may test whether the ECB is on the right policy path.  

According to forecasts, the eurozone economy has probably lost some momentum in the three months to September, expanding by 1.2% y/y, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3%. Headline CPI inflation is also expected to ease moderately to 2.1% y/y in October, signaling price stability near the central bank’s 2% target.

With EURUSD struggling to close above its 20-day SMA at 1.1655, downside risks continue to linger. A weaker-than-expected data set could trigger the next bearish wave, but only a decisive drop below the nearby 1.1550-1.1570 support zone may intensify selling pressures toward 1.1400.

Big U.S. techs report earnings --> BTCUSD

The earnings season could make for an exciting week as U.S. tech giants—including Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet—are scheduled to publish their financial results. Wall Street continues to shine on the back of the AI boom, and investors are eager to see strong returns from developing technologies. Cryptocurrencies could benefit as well if upbeat earnings results and guidance boost market liquidity expectations.

BTCUSD staged a strong rebound last week as Wall Street hit new all-time highs. The price reached an almost three-week high above the 116,000 level earlier today, with the real test now seen near the 117,000 resistance. A successful breakout above that level could open the way for an extension toward the 120,000 psychological mark.