Weekly column: Kevin Warsh and the return of the inflation hawk

Review

Stocks fell, silver and gold plunged, and the dollar strengthened after investors finally learned President Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve: former Fed governor-turned-critic Kevin Warsh. Some market participants see Warsh as a relatively safe option, given his Fed experience and his track record as an inflation hawk, or supporter of tight monetary policy. That could make him more resistant to calls from the administration to slash interest rates, a prospect that helped the dollar and hammered precious metals on Friday.

— Market Coverage Live, The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2026, www.wsj.com.

What we try to keep out of our existence is chaos, which is a very real part of our lives. Our refusal to accept chaos as integral to our existence has been one of the greatest mistakes we have made as a civilization.

— David Bowie, quoted in Moonage Daydream, directed by Brett Morgen (2022), Netflix.

 Those solar/lunar, air-air, combinations struck again last week.

Stunning and unbelievable best describe what happened Thursday and Friday in Gold and Silver. After attaining a new all-time high on January 26 at $117.70 in the March futures contract, Silver snapped. By the end of the day, it had fallen to 101.70, or $16. I don’t think Silver had ever fallen $16 from its high to its low on the same day before. But that didn’t stop it from soaring to another new ATH (all-time high) just three days later, January 29, of 121.70 as we entered the middle of a solar-lunar, air-air combination. We had just issued a post on our new “MMA Daily Options Report with Derek,” as well as our ‘X’ community, alerting readers to the history of air-air combos with highs often occurring with the Moon in the first half of the Gemini, followed by sharp declines 1-5 days later. By Friday, January 30, one day later, Silver was down over $47, testing the $74 mark.

The drama was equally staggering in Gold, which also posted a new ATH of $5626.80 on Thursday’s solar/lunar, air-air combo. By Friday, it was down almost $1,000, testing $4,700.

Other markets also got hammered as the Sun in Aquarius season began, January 20-February 18. Uranus, the planet of disruptions and sudden changes, rules Aquarius. More on this later. Bitcoin, for example, fell sharply from a major cycle crest at 97,866 on January 14 to test its yearly low just above 80,000 on Friday, January 31. Ethereum also tested its November low of 2628 when it fell to 2636 on January 30.

Compared with commodities, global stock indices held up fairly well. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was the standout performer, soaring to 28,056 on Friday, January 30, its highest level since July 2021. No other markets in the region made new all-time highs last week, and only India’s NIFTY Index fell hard, testing its lowest mark in 16 weeks after forming its ATH earlier in January.

In Europe, the Netherlands’ AEX posted a new ATH on January 28. The other markets in the region had put in their ATH’s January 13-16, so there is now a case of intermarket bearish divergence as each started a pullback by the end of last week.

In the Americas, the story was similar. Brazil’s Bovespa and the S&P of the U.S. made new ATHs last week, but these were not matched by either the DJIA or NASDAQ. The high in the DJIA remains 49,633 on January 12, right in the center of the geocosmic CRD that included the Sun/Mars conjunction in opposition to Jupiter. As reported in this column at the time, these factors have a high correlation to sharp declines from highs in the DJIA. In the case of Sun/Mars, these declines can drop 8% or more. It’s nowhere near that yet, but there is still time while the Sun and Mars are within 10 degrees of one another through much of February.

Short-term geocosmics

Ray Dalio just said the quiet part out loud: “If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.” The stock market boom is a lie … We are witnessing the death of the dollar, not the growth of the economy. 99% of people have no idea.

Barkmeta (@Bark), posted on X, January 27, 2026.

In Trump’s view, a strong dollar, like higher interest rates, interferes with his priorities: faster growth, reshored manufacturing, and a smaller trade deficit … Trump’s trade wars and threat to annex Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of Denmark and a military ally, and his demands that the Fed bend to his political priorities, have shaken confidence in international relations and U.S. institutions. Investors have responded by trying to reduce exposure to the dollar without reducing exposure to U.S. stocks.

—Greg Ip, “A Weaker Dollar Fits Trump’s Plan,” The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2026.

Previously, readers of this column were alerted to the possibility of 1000-point down days in the DJIA between January and March 2026. It’s a seasonal pattern under President Trump for some reason. This possibility may be heightened with the Sun in Aquarius, which will be particularly strong this year with Uranus turning direct on February 3-8, while forming a square aspect to Venus. This period also includes the next air-air, solar/lunar combo days of February 5-6. And then, the Aquarius season ends with a solar eclipse square Uranus (on President Donald Trump’s Descendant and opposite his Mars/Ascendant in Leo).

With Aquarius and its ruler, Uranus, both highlighted, chaos and disruption will likely be the norm again. Under Uranus, there is an equal chance of a sharp breakdown in many markets, or a sharp rally to new all-time highs, or both, as was witnessed last week in Gold and Silver. Stocks and other financial markets could follow the same path in the next three weeks.

The chaos in financial markets reflects the chaos in global leadership, both politically and in the banking sector. You can see that chaos erupting (Uranus highlighted) as the president has made it very clear that he wants lower interest rates, but announced today that he intends to nominate a new Fed Chair with a reputation as a hawk in fighting inflation. But it goes deeper than that. The president, obsessed with his favorite weapon of tariffs, needs lower interest rates to buffer the potential inflationary threat of tariffs. If tariffs force U.S. companies to pay more to import parts and goods, that additional cost (inflationary for U.S. businesses and eventually consumers) can be reduced for foreign buyers through a lower dollar, which itself declines in value due to lower interest rates. As the current Fed Chair has voiced many times, the reason he won’t support lower interest rates yet is because of the unknown effect and unstable policy of higher tariff rates.

It makes one wonder: wouldn’t it have been simpler to just not wield the threat of tariffs around the world? This alone would probably have led to the goal of lower rates and a lower dollar to boost the economy.

Like the recent Greenland threat of annexation, “one way or the other,” it seems that once again, this president has proven to be a master of creating a problem that doesn’t exist, in which only he can resolve and come out as a hero. But in this case, it appears that the process has alienated important allies. This has led to many nations losing their trust in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner. And what is the consequence of losing a relationship due to loss of trust? Other countries seek new trade agreements with other nations that hold to their agreements and allow their companies to make stable plans for their future business. Canada and Europe, for instance, have opened up new trading relationships with China and South America. That’s lost business for American producers. It also creates agreements regarding the use of currencies other than the U.S. Dollar, which weakens the greenback. President Trump wants this. But he’s not going to like it if other nations curtail their investments in America rather than opening new ones. It becomes a case of “Be careful what you wish for.”

Attention now turns to a potential successor as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsch. He was born April 13, 1970, in Albany, NY, according to Wikipedia (time unknown). He has his Sun at 23° Aries, and his natal Moon can be anywhere within 7° degrees of 23 Cancer, in exact square to his Sun. The U.S. has a Mercury-Pluto opposition near his Moon and a T-square to his Sun. President Trump has his Venus-Saturn conjunction at 23-25° Cancer, near that Moon, but square Warsch’s Sun in Aries. It will be interesting to see what happens when transiting Saturn hits these planets at 23-25° Aries, from May 2027 to March 2028.

Warsch also has four planets in the money sign of Taurus (Saturn, Mercury, Venus, and Mars), which fits his profession. Right now, transiting Jupiter is crossing his natal Moon (first half of 2026). He’s popular. And transiting Uranus is about to form an opposition to his natal Neptune (second time due to retrograde) in 0° Sagittarius. He is about to enter another reality that may seem surreal to him. Think of the opening lines to the classic TV thriller, “The Twilight Zone.” This sense of otherworldliness may peak in July when the Jupiter/Pluto opposition T-squares his natal Jupiter. Nothing may be quite what it seemed. But he can survive it. He can also bring clarity to the position with his Mercury-Saturn conjunction. Yet he probably moves more slowly and, more cautiously, than the president would like. Both have Mars at 26° in stubborn fixed signs. But Trump’s Mars is in the fire sign Leo, on his ascendant. Warsch has his Mars in the earth sign of Taurus, in opposition to Neptune. One pushes, the other holds his ground. Guess which is which?