Is there a compelling reason to sell in March?
|FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
1.UNEXPCTED OUTCOMES
Is there a COMPELLING REASON to SELL IN MARCH? Despite other’s concerns over the March FED meeting, we do NOT see 4 raises in 2018. If so, markets will feel “relieved”.
Given inflation concerns, upcoming high geopolitical risk [North Korea & ME] and overvaluation, markets are likely to be mixed with a modest range bound upward bias into March. Thereafter, a classic seasonal and astrological reason to sell and protect by late April.
BOTTOM LINE:
Despite our forecast for a Spring pullback, we are not likely to short aggressively until 2019!
Proper Valuations:
US 10 Year Bond > 2.80
OIL > $60
TIPS ~ 111
COPPER > $3.20
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
Bitcoin > 2500
GOLD < 1388
SILVER < 18
NASDAQ > 6500
TRADING NOTES
- We are hardly bearish: given the increasing strength of the US economy as predicted along with sky high US consumer confidence.
- We continue to recommend selling or protecting Nasdaq when above 7000 and DJIA 25000 and technically shorting circa or above 7500 and 26200 respectively.
- Given markets “corrected” 10% - earlier than we expect (March/April), we expect now markets to rise most of February and much of March but RANGE BOUND!
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Increased Interest Rates Could Cause A Drop In Oil Prices
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
March 4-8 Toronto
April 3- 12 Hong Kong
April 13-14 Singapore (tentative)
2017 CLOSE |
24719 |
2673 |
6903 |
16.98 |
1305 |
60.10 |
2.40 |
2/23/2018 |
25309 |
2747 |
7337 |
16.54 |
1330 |
63.57 |
2.86 |
PIVOTS |
25000 |
2673 |
7000 |
16.50 |
1325 |
60 |
2.80 |
SUPPORT |
24000 |
2600 |
6500 |
16.00 |
1300 |
58 |
2.70 |
KEY DATES: FEBRUARY 27, MARCH 19-21
DJIA: 25,000 +/- ~ 1200 points
SPX: 2700 +/- ~120 points
NASDAQ: 7500 RESISTANCE
GOLD: R1 1340 R2 1365 R3 1388 R4 1400
SILVER: 16.50 PIVOT
OIL: 58-65
COPPER: H2 2018-2019 à3.50-3.70+
US 10 year IT à 3.00-3.20
BITCOIN: 10800 PIVOT R1 10800 R2 12000 R3 14000 S1 9200 S2 8000 S3 5000 H2 2018 à 4500L
TIPS: TIP accumulation Q2 2018 à 1.11-
The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
2015 CLOSE: DJIA 17425 SPX 2044 & NASDAQ 5007
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1388
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At our XXIV Triple Gold Conference at the Princeton Club we presented 4 early stage mining companies that we believe as a group will outperform their benchmarks:
Benz Mining, Para Resources, Piedmont Lithium & Rockhaven Resources
3.Gold Stocks Continue to Frustrate and Confuse Investors
Gold Price Forecast: Bollinger Bands signal breakout could happen soon
1. Despite headwinds from US interest rate rising, happily, there will be less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors” as time goes on. Therefore we repeat:
While there are some good reasons for future US$ strength, $1400 is an intermediate target for many precious metal analysts, and we agree.
However, we advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.
· Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
· For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1388 = Commodity FV: 1334 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1388 + Crisis FV: 1450.
Gold/Silver ratio à 69 FV $20.
INVESTORS: Intermediate Term, we plan to stay LONG in H1 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers are $21+.
4. "There was definitely a Yellen put, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a Powell put"
Kristina Hooper, global market strategist, Invesco
HW: Hopefully not.
"We believe that China remains attractively valued relative to its strong growth prospects, and parts of the market remain under-researched. We favor high growth domestic consumption-related names, while looking to avoid sectors with structural excess capacity." Jason Yu, head of multi-asset product for North Asia, Schroders
HW: We agree Q1-Q3 2018.
“Maybe we finally got a Fed Chair who thinks the economy is stronger than you think. Rate hikes are coming. Bet on it.”
Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist, MUFG
HW: You betcha!
5. Rising rates wreck REITs
Why markets have gotten so jumpy
Soarin Fundamentals For Stocks
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