The Fed Heads meet this week

• Gold & Silver get whacked last week.

• The Fed Heads meet this week!

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I felt badly about not writing last week other than Monday, because of doctor appointments, and on Thursday I actually didn't go to the doctor, as I was walking out the door to the appointment, my gum started bleeding... I was upset because it hadn't bled in a week! And I couldn't get it to stop, so I had to call the doctor and cancel my appointment, while I worked on getting the bleeding to stop... By then though, the day was moving along, and I just said, to heck with it! Like I told you last week, I'm back in my winter home for a couple of weeks, while the weather back home decides to warm up for good! Steve Winwood greets me this morning with his song: Arc of A Diver... 

Remember last Monday when I was aghast over the engineered takedown of the metals the previous Friday? Well, last Monday was just as bad! And actually it was worse! Because Gold lost $64, and Silver lost $1.51 on Monday last week... Gold & Silver spent the rest of the week, trying to pick up the pieces of their shattered dreams of hitting new all-time highs daily... Gold ended the week, on Friday up $5.70, to end the week at $2,337.40, which happened to be down from the previous week's level of $2,391... Shows you how the short paper traders took Gold down by boatloads... Silver ended the week down 22-cents, on Friday, and the week at $27.10... You know, I keep reading people saying that the short paper trading is coming to an end... Well, it certainly didn't do that last week! 

The dollar kind of drifted here and about throughout the week, last week, but then on Friday it jumped higher, and that was because of the data... Personal Income was up .5%, and that brought about all kinds of fear about wage inflation increasing, and with inflation fears growing once again, that put the dollar out front and center, because of what the markets feel the Fed Heads will do this Wednesday... And that is... not cut rates! And no movement on rates from the Fed Heads, equals dollar strength...  

Another piece of the data last week was Personal Spending, which was greater than the Personal Income once again, at +.08%... That tells me that inflation in the things that people need to buy is strong, and thus prices are higher, and that increases what people have to spend on them... 

The price of Oil remained in the $83 handle throughout Friday's hemming and hawing about rate cuts or not... And the yield on the 10-year ended the week at 4.70%... I'm telling you now, so you can listen to me later, that the yield on the 10-year is heading to 5%... I'm just saying... 

In the overnight markets last night... well, looky here... The dollar got sold overnight and not by one or two index points in the BBDXY Index... Last night it was a 4-point loss! So, what's going on here? Well, I think the foreign markets aren't that enamored by the deficit spending that the U.S. continues to do, and then there's the refunding announcement that will come tomorrow, I think, and that should be a doozy! So, the currencies look a bit better this morning, but still a long way from a full recouperation! Gold is down a buck this morning, no worries there, and Silver is up 15-cents to start the day today. I'll talk about a few currencies, further later in the letter today.  

The price of Oil remained in the $83 handle overnight... But there was something strange going on in bonds...Specifically, the 10-year's yield has dropped to start the day today to 4.64% (it ended the week at 4.70%) So, once again, somebody, some institution is buying bonds to keep the yield from going higher, I wonder who would have an interest in yields not going higher... Could it be... The U.S.? I just mentioned the refunding announcement in the previous paragraph, and that would be key to issuing bonds, that will have the interest rate that the U.S. must pay in the future... I'm just saying... 

I hear you saying, but Chuck! The Fed Heads said that they were out of the bond buying business a couple of years ago, right? So, how could it be the Fed Heads? Well, you see this is where a real investigative journalist would earn his pay, but instead you have me... And I'm going to say that while it may appear that the Primary Dealers are buying the bonds, they are being instructed and paid for by the U.S. .... I know that's just speculation on my part, but how many conspiracies have I talked about through the years, that became conspiracy fact?   

Late last week the U.S. decided to take over the frozen assets of Russia... I had a dear reader send me that news, and I responded to him this, "What do you think U.S. citizens would do if France took over the assets of a U.S. Bank ?" to which he sent me this: "Russia has decided to freeze the assets of JP Morgan bank in Russia." Well, I guess that proves that what's good for the goose is good for the gander, eh? 

This has gone on too long, and too far in my humble opinion... The war in Ukraine is a lost cause, and we, as a country need to stop sending them money that we don't have in the first place! I know I'll probably tick a few people off with that statement, but it's become a financial thing now, with all the billions of dollars that we've sent there, for what? So, come to grips with the thought that deficit spending equals more inflation... And then maybe, you'll come around to see my point. 

Ok, onto other things... The Good folks at GATA sent me this tidbit that I find to be very important in the future price of Gold... "The Government Pension Fund is reducing investments in assets that may be affected by war and increasing investments in gold and oil to mitigate risk."  

And the other note that the Good Folks at GATA sent me this past weekend was about how the accountants that are working with a new platform for former President Trump in his bid for election, tells a story about how these folks are working on a plan to reduce the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel's independence... I can't say now whether that's a good thing or bad thing, based on not knowing what the plan entails... But... in my humble opinion, I truly don't believe that the Fed Heads were ever truly independent... I truly believe they had their political bias, and in Janet Yellen's case as Chief Fed Head, she even made rate decisions based on her pick for president... Of course, she would deny doing that, but as observers we all know! 

OK... So, did you hear that song, "here we go again"? late Friday, when it was announced that The FDIC seized the troubled Philadelphia bank, Republic First Bancorp and struck an agreement for the lender’s deposits and the majority of its assets to be bought by Fulton Bank.? I'm sure we'll hear about how they had major, on paper, losses on the books, and depositors didn't care that the losses were just "on the books"... 

Well, onto the currencies... With the dollar strengthening on Friday last week, it pushed the Japanese yen to a 34-year low VS the dollar... Traders are now calling for intervention from the Bank of Japan (BOJ)... But as I've explained for many years now, Single bank intervention will only cause a brief ripple in the selling of the currency, and unless the BOJ can get other Central Banks to do a coordinated intervention, then the BOJ is just wasting their money... Right now, currency traders that trade in yen, are tasting the blood in the water, and they won't be deterred, unless the BOJ can get some other Central Banks to join them... 

The euro regained the 1.07 handle until Friday's rally in the dollar, discussed above.. I really don't see much conviction from euro traders to take the euro much higher at this point... Withe the "point" being, the European Central Bank is going to cut rates soon... So, don't look for any further euro gains... I'm just saying... 

The Mexican peso, which had recently touched a multi-year higher VS the dollar, saw some selling last week, and it'all because of the dollar and the Fed direction that we talked about above... I say to those selling their pesos right now, that they are being foolish, because, Mexico's internal rate is 11.25%, and not going anywhere at this point, and that's more than double the U.S. internal rate...  I'm just saying...

In Norway, it appears that the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) will have to hike rates to get people to get interested in Krone once again... I've been through Norway's finances before, so I won't carry on about their Sovreign Wealth Fund... But if you've forgotten about it, you should Google it, and read about how the country has taken care of all citizens, and they did that with the help of their energy production... So, when I see the krone trading above 10 VS the dollar, I scratch my balding head, and wonder, just what currency traders look at these days?  

The U.S. Data Cupboard last week had some surprises for the markets, Gov't, economists that don't read the Pfennig... First-quarter core inflation measure accelerated to 3.7% rate. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized rate, below all economists’ forecasts, the government’s initial estimate showed. The economy’s main growth engine — personal spending — rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. A wider trade deficit subtracted the most from growth since 2022.  Didn't I tell you that the GDP rate would be downgraded? And there it was... And Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Sec. is still yelling from the rooftops that the U.S. economy is strong... As if! 

The Big Deal this week is that it's a FOMC Week! Yes, the Fed Heads will meet and discuss rates... This was supposed to be the meeting that yielded a rate cut, and claims that the Fed Heads had defeated inflation... but we all know now that's not happening... At least it shouldn't happen, if the Fed Heads have even an ounce of credibility left!

To recap... The dollar drifted throughout last week, until Friday.. When data that printed suggested that the Fed Heads might even hike rates at their meeting this Wednesday... Gold & Silver were subjected to another engineered takedown on Monday last week, marking 2 back-to-back, belly to belly days takedowns by the short paper traders... Gold & Silver had to then pick up the pieces of their shattered dreams the rest of the week... Gold ended the week down almost $60 from the previous Friday... Chuck gives us his view of the war in Ukraine, and the money we keep sending them that we don't have to send... that will have to be printed, and thus add to inflation! 

For What It's Worth... You would think that after a week that I would be loaded for bear with FWIW worthy articles... But, I don't... 

Here's your snippet: "Short-term inflation expectations rose... again... according to the latest UMich sentiment survey with 1-year expectations at 3.2% final, up from preliminary 3.1% for April, and 2.9% for March. This is the highest level since November 2023...

The headline sentiment also declined in April from three-year-highs.

Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation and the economic outlook over the next year both slid to four-month lows. The current conditions gauge dropped to 79 from 82.5. A measure of expectations fell to 76 from 77.4.

While “consumers’ frustration over high prices in their day-to-day spending decisions grew this month, price concerns for large purchases - durable goods, vehicles, and homes - were all little changed from last month,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

About 38% of consumers reported that high prices were weighing down their living standards, up from 33% who said so last month.

Consumers continue to express uncertainty about the future trajectory of the economy pending the outcomes of the upcoming election,” Hsu said."

Chuck again... I had mentioned this above that consumers are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and that will go a long way toward whom they decide is best to lead us out of this inflationary environment... When in reality, neither of the candidates have any idea how to get us out of this... Remember what Gandalf the White said, "Understand this. Things are now in motion that cannot be undone."  It's better if you recall this quote often these days... I'm just saying.

Market Prices 4/29/ 2024: American Style: A$.6567, kiwi .5976, C$ 7326, euro 1.0717, sterling 1.2536, Swiss $1.0963, European Style: rand 18.6931, krone 10.9911, SEK 10.9058, forint 365.24, zloty 4.0347, koruna 23.4933, RUB 93.26, yen 156.27, sing 1.3599, HKD 7.8269, INR 83.47, China 7.2414, peso 17.09, BRL 5.1051, BBDXY 1,259.34, Dollar Index 105.70, Oil $83.76, 10-year 4.64%, Silver $27.41, Platinum $943.00, Palladium $982.00, Copper $4.61, and Gold... $2,246.35.

That's it for today... Well, I'm here all week, try the veal! And make sure you tip the servers! HA! Well, my beloved Cardinals won 2 of 3 from the pond scum, I mean the Mets this past weekend, and head to Detroit... I sat outside in the warm sun yesterday to read... I love it down here, it's always so peaceful, and calm... And I get to watch the sun rise over the ocean in the morning, and the moon rise over the ocean at night! Well, my doctor visits last week, yielded a special blood test sent off for more testing on my cancer. An appointment to have a procedure on my heart next month... Speaking of next month, have I told you that I'm going to Ireland? We leave 6/29 and don't return to the U.S. until July 12th... So, you'll have to do without your daily dose of Chuck for that time... Mark your Calendars! In the old days when I ran a currency desk, I would have someone pick up the ball and write for me while I was gone.. But it's just me, by myself, all alone these days... No worries, I'll be sure to remind you of my leaving a few times before I head out! Yes takes us to the Finish Line today with their rock classic song: Roudabout... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and will please Be Good To Yourself!