Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD aims for the $4,080 key resistance once again
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UPGRADE- Gold buyers retake $4,000 in Asia on Friday, with eyes on flash US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
- US Dollar pauses its declines as risk-off flows negate the impact of government shutdown, renewed labor market woes.
- Gold’s daily technical setup leans in favor of buyers as the RSI is back above the midline.
Gold is looking to find a strong foothold above the $4,000 threshold early Friday, with buyers returning in tandem with safe-haven flows.
The focus now remains on the preliminary release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data for a fresh take on the health of the US economy.
Gold eyes a flattish close to the week
Gold is drawing support from a generalized tepid sentiment toward higher-yielding assets, as risks of a protracted US government shutdown and weak US private labor data weigh on investors’ confidence alongside persistent concerns over inflated technology stocks valuations.
Global markets are following the resumption of the tech sell-off on Wall Street, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
Meanwhile, data published by the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday showed that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.
The latest jobs data refuelled concerns about the weakening US labor market conditions, slightly boosting the odds of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next month to 69% versus a drop to 62% seen after the release of the US ADP Employment Change data.
The US Treasury bond yields fell on weak US jobs data, helping Gold settle above the critical resistance near $3,975.
The US Treasury bond yields continue to trade sluggishly early Friday, keeping the sentiment around the bright metal underpinned even as the US Dollar (USD) attempts a minor rebound.
In the absence of the top-tier official US economic data publication, the private sector statistics and the broader market sentiment will continue to play a pivotal role in Gold price action.
Additionally, the end-of-the-week flows will also be a key driver for Gold in the session ahead.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart suggests that the near-term outlook for Gold appears neutral to bullish as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) regains the midline.
The bullion closed Thursday above $3,973, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19, reviving the bullish potential.
Buyers now await acceptance the $4,000 mark to challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,080.
Ahead of that resistance, strong offers will continue to lurk near the $4,050 psychological level.
On the downside, Gold could find demand once again at the intermittent lows near $3,930, a break below which would expose the $3,900 figure.
The next relevant supports are seen at the October 28 low of $3,887, followed by the $3,870-$3,850 demand area.
That zone is the confluence of the 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 07, 2025 15:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 53.2
Previous: 53.6
Source: University of Michigan
Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- Gold buyers retake $4,000 in Asia on Friday, with eyes on flash US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
- US Dollar pauses its declines as risk-off flows negate the impact of government shutdown, renewed labor market woes.
- Gold’s daily technical setup leans in favor of buyers as the RSI is back above the midline.
Gold is looking to find a strong foothold above the $4,000 threshold early Friday, with buyers returning in tandem with safe-haven flows.
The focus now remains on the preliminary release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data for a fresh take on the health of the US economy.
Gold eyes a flattish close to the week
Gold is drawing support from a generalized tepid sentiment toward higher-yielding assets, as risks of a protracted US government shutdown and weak US private labor data weigh on investors’ confidence alongside persistent concerns over inflated technology stocks valuations.
Global markets are following the resumption of the tech sell-off on Wall Street, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
Meanwhile, data published by the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday showed that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.
The latest jobs data refuelled concerns about the weakening US labor market conditions, slightly boosting the odds of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next month to 69% versus a drop to 62% seen after the release of the US ADP Employment Change data.
The US Treasury bond yields fell on weak US jobs data, helping Gold settle above the critical resistance near $3,975.
The US Treasury bond yields continue to trade sluggishly early Friday, keeping the sentiment around the bright metal underpinned even as the US Dollar (USD) attempts a minor rebound.
In the absence of the top-tier official US economic data publication, the private sector statistics and the broader market sentiment will continue to play a pivotal role in Gold price action.
Additionally, the end-of-the-week flows will also be a key driver for Gold in the session ahead.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart suggests that the near-term outlook for Gold appears neutral to bullish as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) regains the midline.
The bullion closed Thursday above $3,973, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19, reviving the bullish potential.
Buyers now await acceptance the $4,000 mark to challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,080.
Ahead of that resistance, strong offers will continue to lurk near the $4,050 psychological level.
On the downside, Gold could find demand once again at the intermittent lows near $3,930, a break below which would expose the $3,900 figure.
The next relevant supports are seen at the October 28 low of $3,887, followed by the $3,870-$3,850 demand area.
That zone is the confluence of the 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent.
Economic Indicator
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan, is a survey gauging sentiment among consumers in the United States. The questions cover three broad areas: personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The data shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money, a key factor as consumer spending is a major driver of the US economy. The University of Michigan survey has proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the US economy. The survey publishes a preliminary, mid-month reading and a final print at the end of the month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Nov 07, 2025 15:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 53.2
Previous: 53.6
Source: University of Michigan
Consumer exuberance can translate into greater spending and faster economic growth, implying a stronger labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, helping turn the Fed hawkish. This survey’s popularity among analysts (mentioned more frequently than CB Consumer Confidence) is justified because the data here includes interviews conducted up to a day or two before the official release, making it a timely measure of consumer mood, but foremost because it gauges consumer attitudes on financial and income situations. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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