Gold Price Forecast: Acceptance above $4,130 is critical for XAU/USD buyers
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UPGRADE- Gold sits at three-week highs near $4,150 early Tuesday as buyers refuse to give up.
- US Dollar finds fresh haven demand as Asian markets turn cautious despite the US government reopening hopes.
- Gold focuses on a daily close above the 23.6% Fibo resistance amid bullish RSI.
Gold is flirting with the $4,150 barrier early Tuesday, sitting at the highest level in three months. The focus now turns to the US ADP weekly jobs report amid a potential end to the government shutdown.
Gold looks to US ADP Employment Change data
Gold has been on a roll higher, gaining over 3% so far this week, on hopes that the US government reopening would imply resumption of the economic data publications, which could help markets confirm a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Markets are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of the Fed lowering rates next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Last week’s downbeat US data ramped up bets for another cut by the turn of the year. The University of Michigan (UoM) showed on Friday that the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3 in early November, the lowest in nearly three-and-a-half years.
Meanwhile, the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.
Amid ground labor market concerns and the disinflationary trend, markets believe that the missed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for September and the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) could help seal in a December rate reduction.
This narrative is boding well for Gold optimists even as US Treasury bond yields and stocks ride the wave higher of the US shutdown nearing an end.
With US bond markets closed on Tuesday in observance of Veterans Day, all eyes are on the weekly US private sector Employment Change (4-week average) data, which could provide fresh light on the health of the labor market.
The sentiment on Wall Street will also be closely monitored for fresh trading incentives in Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis
As observed on the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks firm above the midline, currently near 60, suggesting that buyers will likely retain control in the near term.
Acceptance above $4,129, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19, is critical on a daily candlestick closing basis to unleash further upside.
The next relevant topside target is seen at the $4,200 round level, above which a fresh uptrend will initiate toward the record high of $4,382.
On the downside, the initial support is located at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,086, below which the $4,050 psychological level will come into play.
The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at $3,973, the 38.2% Fibo level of the same advance.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change 4-week average
The preliminary ADP weekly estimate, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is simulative of economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Nov 11, 2025 13:15
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: 14.25K
Source: ADP Research Institute
The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
- Gold sits at three-week highs near $4,150 early Tuesday as buyers refuse to give up.
- US Dollar finds fresh haven demand as Asian markets turn cautious despite the US government reopening hopes.
- Gold focuses on a daily close above the 23.6% Fibo resistance amid bullish RSI.
Gold is flirting with the $4,150 barrier early Tuesday, sitting at the highest level in three months. The focus now turns to the US ADP weekly jobs report amid a potential end to the government shutdown.
Gold looks to US ADP Employment Change data
Gold has been on a roll higher, gaining over 3% so far this week, on hopes that the US government reopening would imply resumption of the economic data publications, which could help markets confirm a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Markets are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of the Fed lowering rates next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Last week’s downbeat US data ramped up bets for another cut by the turn of the year. The University of Michigan (UoM) showed on Friday that the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3 in early November, the lowest in nearly three-and-a-half years.
Meanwhile, the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday, that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.
Amid ground labor market concerns and the disinflationary trend, markets believe that the missed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for September and the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) could help seal in a December rate reduction.
This narrative is boding well for Gold optimists even as US Treasury bond yields and stocks ride the wave higher of the US shutdown nearing an end.
With US bond markets closed on Tuesday in observance of Veterans Day, all eyes are on the weekly US private sector Employment Change (4-week average) data, which could provide fresh light on the health of the labor market.
The sentiment on Wall Street will also be closely monitored for fresh trading incentives in Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis
As observed on the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks firm above the midline, currently near 60, suggesting that buyers will likely retain control in the near term.
Acceptance above $4,129, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the parabolic rise to the record high that began on August 19, is critical on a daily candlestick closing basis to unleash further upside.
The next relevant topside target is seen at the $4,200 round level, above which a fresh uptrend will initiate toward the record high of $4,382.
On the downside, the initial support is located at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,086, below which the $4,050 psychological level will come into play.
The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at $3,973, the 38.2% Fibo level of the same advance.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change 4-week average
The preliminary ADP weekly estimate, released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is simulative of economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Nov 11, 2025 13:15
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: 14.25K
Source: ADP Research Institute
The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
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