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Analysis

Gold Price Analysis: Despite the move back above $1700 the outlook is bearish in medium term

  • The price of gold has pushed just over 1% higher on Thursday. 
  • This comes despite a new wave low being created on Wednesday's session.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

The price of gold has pushed higher today as the greenback capitulated once again. Although stocks have moved higher too this time. There has been another liquidity dump in the system by the ECB as today they announce an additional EUR 600bln. 

The structure of the gold chart is not as bullish as most of the indices but it is defiantly not as bearish as the dollar index. This leaves the precious metal in somewhat of a conundrum. The equity markets have seen a rotation into the stocks that fell the most during the COVID-19 pandemic (banks and airlines) and yields are starting to rise once again in the fixed income space.

Looking at the chart below there is still a lower high lower low pattern. If the USD 1750.00 per troy ounce level is broken then this pattern becomes obsolete and analysts can look for higher levels once more. Until that point, the Fib extensions on the downside could be the potential targets. 

At the moment the 200 Simple Moving Average is providing some resistance and the price is also under the 55 Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index indicator has pulled away from the oversold zone allowing some more space for another move to the downside. The MACD is still very much in bearish territory as the histogram is in the red and the signal lines are under the mid-point. 

Additional levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1715.28
Today Daily Change 16.31
Today Daily Change % 0.96
Today daily open 1698.97
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1722.99
Daily SMA50 1694.45
Daily SMA100 1639.51
Daily SMA200 1567.93
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1732.1
Previous Daily Low 1689.46
Previous Weekly High 1737.78
Previous Weekly Low 1693.78
Previous Monthly High 1765.38
Previous Monthly Low 1670.72
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1705.75
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1715.81
Daily Pivot Point S1 1681.59
Daily Pivot Point S2 1664.2
Daily Pivot Point S3 1638.95
Daily Pivot Point R1 1724.23
Daily Pivot Point R2 1749.48
Daily Pivot Point R3 1766.87

 

 

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