GBPUSD: Trying to make sense of Cable not on the cards, traders are scared
|SUPPORT 1.2210 1.2170 1.2135/26 1.2089 1.2045 1.1973
RESISTANCE 1.2280 1.2330 1.2375 1.2420 1.2465 1.2510
Trying to make sense of Cable currently is not really on the cards...we have had this flash move lower...anywhere from 1.1973 to at one stage 1.12...the 1.12 did not happen...and the actual low of the market was 1.1973....and that was for 2 mins 30 seconds...then it recovered...but as yet it hasn't recovered from where it went lower which was 1.2755...Now what...well we know we had a long term trendline at 1.25..and there has been a severe lack of interest in this currency for the past few weeks....You can see this by the daily ranges....Traders scared....ir in actual fact is it that banks do not really prop trade anymore therefore taking liquidity out of the market...I think its the latter...I believe that because we do not have prop desks in the UK banks anymore...or if they do they are very small and not on the scale of pre 2008 we have lost liquidity in our market..so it takes a fat finger...or a large order overnight to push this around...Cable was always a good market to trade...one of my favourites in fact...but even I am loathe to touch it now that the might of the prop traders have disappeared...Where to place stops ion any overnight position...that begs the question...it is trading sideways in quite a narrow range and it is looking as though we are in a channel with currently 1.2260 the top....I think with this market you have to day trade at the moment and play the range...with the base seen at 1.2170....If below 1.2160 we have 1.2135/25 as the next targeted area...then 1.2089...It is hard to predict direction in this market since June as it trades sideways then falls like a stone on nothing....the decline as far as I can see has not been a technical one...I am meaning the recent move...not the Brexit move....If we look further out we can see that although we are at lows...our historic lows were 1.0340 back in 1985...what a good time to start trading in FX for Midland bank !!!.....Central bank intervention back then was a weekly/fortnightly occurrence...yet the BOE has done nothing to defend the currency and in actual fact hurt it by lowering rates...This is not what you do to defend the currency...you raise rates as we saw in 1992 with the ERM crisis....yet the BOE have this time round been deafeningly silent...I wonder why.....It seems they are resigned to a lower currency....it may well help with trade agreement negotiations....who knows....but what I do know is this...If we were in pre 2008 conditions I am sure things would be very different..but with the banks hands tied....alls we can do is hope that we don't go to parity....we shall see.....to take pressure off the topside we need to break and hold above 1.2550 and this does seem a long way off....
GBPUSD Current Trading Positions
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