GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD targets, interest rates, and 14 currencies
|GBPNZD Posted January 20 when GBPNZD traded 2.0929.
GBPNZD final Target 2.0097.
Achieves by 2.0636, 2.0443, 2.0199 and 2.0097. Trade 649 Pips.
GBP/NZD traded today 2.0371 and Trade runs +558 pips. Trade duration was 24 days.
EURNZD posted January 20 when EUR/NZD traded 1.7900's.
EURNZD Final Target 1.7346.
Achieves by 1.7688, 1.7486, 1.7430, 1.7346.
EURNZD traded today 1.7439 for +461 pips. Trade duration 24 days.
GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD + 1019 pips & waiting on targets to complete.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD targets at 1.6000's and 1.8900;s since the January 20 post remains in progress. EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD traded lower by 200 ish pips each.
As written January 20, the 4 trades offered will pay 2000 ish pips. GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD achieved 1000 and a few 100 for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.
Please trust these words, required is pen, paper and $4 calculator. The computer and all the latest advancements will fail and lose money. If all failed before the latest computer craze then assured the computer will again fail to profit.
Interest rates against currency prices
Central banks worked 2 years to slow market prices in 2016. if this is not enough, Central banks added new interest rates in 2020 and 2021. Add another interest rate slowed market prices further. To compound the damages, central banks indexed the new interest rates.
Central banks created a massive new market in interest rates and brand new types of trades where all participants exchange money based on an interest rate for a defined time period from 1 day to 40 years.
New trades from nation to nation includes Index to Index, Index to interest rate, Interest rate to interest rate, OIS to OIS, OIS to interest rate or Index. The possibilities and combinations are endless. Many trade interest rates from central bank meeting to central bank meeting. This is the OIS trade and a great and highly profitable trade.
Interest rate traders seek a few quick points then exit. This is where the exchange rate is not required but also the point when the currency price truly died.
As an example, SOFR Tuesday traded in billions 1667, Fed Funds traded 110 billions. EUR/USD Futures Tuesday traded 337,000 contracts or $1 billion. The EUR/USD once traded regularly 700,000 contracts per day or roughly $3 billion under normal and correct interest rates.
Interest rates subtracted 2 billion from currency prices. Then the question, how many EURO's were required in an interest rate trade. Now the $1 billion decreases again from traded markets.
The new interest rate alignment is permanent. Central banks ran the new arrangements every 2 years since 2016 from the 2014 studies.
The new interest rate arrangements offered a severe compression to nation to nation interest rates as the digitized world economy trades 0.01 all day long. Compress the interest rate naturally restricts market price ranges.
Money supply movements are going nowhere and held in tiny ranges against an interest rate also trading nowhere, literally. World economies are located in 1 permanent place without movements.
Here's the new world of interest rates: 5.0671, 5.3371, 5.5823 Vs 2.9002.
Next week
EUR/USD faces a big line at exactly 1.0900 to trade the range from 1.0900 to 1.1058. EUR/USD at 1.0850 trades neutral. Lower must break 1.0816 to target 1.0780. Target for next week 1.0824 then the resolution to 1.0816. EUR/USD Bottom 1.0724.
GBP/USD trades 1.2605, 1.2634 to 1.2799. Current GBP/USD at 1.2672 faces next hurdles at 1.2677, 1.2698 and 1.2720. HNP/USD trades deeply overbought and targets lower at 1.2628 and 1.2616. Bottom are located at 1.2566 and 1.2461.
GBP/NZD oversold targets easily 2.0576 and EUR/NZD targets 1.7568 and 1.7629.
NZD/USD next big line is close at 0.6286 and the range trades 0.6115 to 0.6286. The 6 year average is no threat yet ay 0.6516. NZD/USD trades deeply overbought and targets 0.6136 and 0.6125. Break 0.6115 targets 0.6095 and 0.6074.
USD/JPY traded 127 pip range for the past 7 days and also trades massively overbought. USD/JPY targets easily 148.91. Since Ueda Man assumed BOJ leadership last April, USD/JPY rose 8%. A drop of 8% places USD/JPY at 138.00's and the first long term target reported weeks ago.
GBP/JPY longer term trades in the vicinity od the 40 year monthly average at 190.00's. EUR/JPY targets easily 161.31 for next week, CAD/JPY 110.45 and CHF/JPY 169.94.
Least favored trade is CHF/JPY. Best 2 are the same old GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.
EUR/AUD higher must cross 1.6505 to target 1.6550. Lower for GBP/AUD must break 1.9237.
USD/CAD higher must cross above 1.3485 to target 1.3530. No thrill to USD/CAD.
AUD/USD trades from 0.6553 to 0.6769. Currently trades overbought and targets 0.6569 and 0.6561. Below 0.6553 targets 0.6521. The 5 year average trades at 0.6978. As AUD/USD drops further, the 5 year average becomes more oversold.
Currency prices are operating correctly for the past 3 and 4 weeks based on most vital weekly trades. Prices remain slow but targets achieve. Expected is a continuation to correct prices in the weeks ahead. Slight off base was GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.
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