French and Italian Mar CPI come in higher than expected

- Market participation limited add of Easter/Passover holidays

- Both France and Italain Mar CPI beat expectations but still some distance to ECB target

Asia:

- BoJ Dep Gov Amamiya stated that interest paid on BoJ current account was not subsidy but used to guide market rates; Reiterated bond buying could fluctuate depending on market conditions, but this was different from the US Fed's 'tapering'

- China yuan (CNY) to have more 'noticeable' fluctuation - Chinese Press

- China PBoC speculated to begin ‘crackdown’ on all types of virtual currencies in 2018

Americas:

- President Trump: Infrastructure plan would likely have to wait until after 2018 midterm elections

- President Trump stated that might delay trade deal with South Korea until after talks with North Korea (**Note: the earliest the US/North Korea talks could take place was in May)

Energy:

- Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 993 v 995 w/w (-0.2%) (first decline in 6 weeks)

- China said to be taking first steps to pay for imported crude oil in yuan in 2018 (as opposed to US dollars)

 

Economic Data:

- (JP) Japan Feb Annualized Housing Starts: 926K v 912Ke; Y/Y: -2.6% v -4.2%e

- 02:30 (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories

- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e

- (FR) France Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e

- (FR) France Feb Consumer Spending M/M: 2.4% v 2.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e

- (FR) France Feb PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.2% prior

- (TR) Turkey Feb Trade Balance: -$5.8B v -$5.7Be

- (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account: $6.2B v $5.6Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): $0.0B v $9.0B prior; Trade Account Balance: $2.3B v $1.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 7.7% v 16.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: 21.8% v 22.5% prior

- 04:30 (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Q4 Credit Conditions and Risk Report

- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e

- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M:2.5% v 2.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.8%e

- (GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.7% v 2.0% prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

- None seen

 

Speakers

- Italy Five Star party leader Di Maio could drop quest for PM position in an agreement with Democratic Party (PD) (**Note: Five-Star party official Bugani refuted the speculation that Di Maio would drop the PM position)

- Turkey President Chief Adviser Ertem: Inflation to decelerate in H2 of 2018. 018 GDP growth to be sustainable. Believed that the exchange rate itself was being debated too much and stressed that low volatility was really important

- Turkey President Erdogan: Domestic economy being wrongly accused of being in trouble; FX rate speculation had 'hit the roof'

- Russia Central Bank: No plan to tighten or halt monetary easing at this time

- China and Australia renewed their CNY200B local currency swap agreement for 3 years in an effort to increase trade and investment between the two countries

 

Currencies

- The USD was slightly weaker in quiet holiday trade against the major pairs.

- EUR/USD higher by 0.2% at 1.2325 after both France and Italy Mar CPI data best expectations.

- The JPY currency (Yen) finished the month with its best quarterly gain since 2016. The currency had been boosted by speculation over the eventual end of QE and safe-haven flows from equity volatility during the past few months

 

Looking Ahead

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Q4 Final Current Account: No est v $17.8B prelim

- 11:00 Potential European Sovereign ratings after close: Greece Sovereign Debt to be rated by Moody's

- 21:00 (CN) China Mar Govt Official Manufacturing PMI: 50.7e v 50.3 prior, Non-manufacturing PMI: 54.5e v 54.4 prior, Composite PMI: No est v 52.9 prior

- (MX) Mexico 2018 Election campaign begins