EUR/USD Forecast: Everything points to further losses
|- The EUR/USD kicks off the week on the back foot, struggling with 1.1500 once again.
- Concerns about Italy and China stand out on a quiet day on the calendar.
- The technical picture is somewhat bearish for the pair.
The EUR/USD remains at the bottom end of the trading ranges it experiences in the past few weeks, with some new themes and some old ones. The Euro is under pressure as Italian bonds and stocks are sold off once again. The euro zone's third-largest economy remains at loggerheads with the European Union about the 2019 budget deficit. At 2.4%, the Italian government's proposal breaches the EU's demand for a maximum of 2%.
German Industrial Production disappointed with a drop of 0.3%, worse than expectations. The downbeat figure joins weak Factory Orders from the continent's locomotive.
The US Dollar is on the rise amid fresh concerns about China. The world's second-largest economy is feeling the brunt of the US tariffs. After the forward-looking purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector pointed to a downturn, the authorities took action to stimulate the economy. The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) has been lowered once again for individual banks. This will allow them to lend more money and boost domestic demand as pressure from outside mounts. The stimulus measure failed to inspire Chinese and other Asian stock markets which are in the red.
The US Dollar also shrugged off Friday's relatively disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report. The American economy gained only 134,000 positions in September. However, upwards revisions, OK wages and the drop in the unemployment rate to the lowest levels in 48 years helped the greenback stabilize on Friday, and it is on the rise once again.
The US is on holiday today, enjoying Colombus Day. Liquidity will be lower than usual in the American session and bond markets are closed. The breakout in 10-year Treasury yields last week provided a boost the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is trading below the 200 and the 50 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart, a bearish sign. Momentum and the Relative Strength Index also point lower.
1.1500 is a round level that serves as a pivotal point within the range. 1.1465 was the low point last week and also a veteran line of support and resistance. 1.1395 was a swing low in August and serves as support below 1.1400. 1.1365 and 1.1300 are next down the line.
Looking up, 1.1545 was a high point after the fall last week. 1.1595 was a swing high last week. 1.1625 was a resistance line in late September and worked in both directions beforehand. 1.1650 served as support in mid-September.
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