EUR/USD Forecast: a test of YTD lows near 1.1020 looms bigger

• EUR/USD grinds lower to sub-1.1100 levels.
• USD-buying, easing ‘repatriation’ flows, ECB behind the down move.
• Recent auspicious US docket also added to the downbeat mood.

The pessimism around the European currency stays everything but abated so far this week. EUR/USD finally stop struggling and receded to the 1.1100 neighbourhood and below, where it is now looking to stabilize somehow.

Comments from ECB’s O.Rehn on Thursday appear to have convinced EUR-bears to return to the markets, encouraging the pair to break below the multi-session sideline theme at the same time. Board member O.Rehn seems to have put words to the common thought that the ECB is likely to surpass investors’ expectations when the central bank delivers its package of new monetary stimulus at the September event.

Extra downside pressure on spot came in the form of auspicious results from the US docket on Thursday, where Retail Sales, the Philly Fed index and the NY Empire State index all bettered expectations and therefore lent extra oxygen to the moderate recovery in the buck.

In light of the recent price action, EUR/USD has now opened the door to a probable visit to yearly lows in the vicinity of 1.1020. Further south, there are no significant support levels until the 1.0840 region, where sits May 2017 lows. On the (unlikely) event of a sustained rebound, the 1.1154/69 band – where coincide the 21-day and 10-day SMAs – emerges as the interim hurdle ahead of the more relevant 1.1219/49 region, home of the 100-day SMA, 55-day SMA and monthly tops. If (and most important, ‘when’) this area is cleared, the downside pressure should alleviate somewhat, allowing then for a move to the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1288.