EUR/USD analysis: at a critical inflection point
|EUR/USD Current price: 1.1298
- US data disappointed, keeping the dollar under pressure.
- EU Consumer Confidence seen unchanged at -6.5 in June.
The EUR/USD pair hovers around the 1.1300 figure, up amid dollar's broad weakness following a dovish US Federal Reserve announcement. Powell & Co. dropped their 'patient' stance, as expected, paving the way for a rate cut in the upcoming months. The American currency came under further selling pressure in Asia, as investors kept digesting the negative news. Meanwhile, Treasury yields collapsed to fresh multi-year lows, with the benchmark yield for the 10-year note piercing 2.0% in pre-opening trading. Equities, on the other hand, maintain the bullish momentum, with US indexes approaching record highs.
Ahead of Wall Street's opening, the US released the Q1 Current Account, which printed a larger-than-expected deficit of $130.4B, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey printed 0.3 in June, well below the 11.0 expected. Unemployment claims for the week ended June 14 came in better-than-expected, down to 216K. Pending of release is the EU June preliminary Consumer Confidence Index, expected unchanged at -6.5.
The EUR/USD pair has recovered above a series of Fibonacci levels, and at this point, it has room to extend its gains up to 1.1347, where it topped this June. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is has rallied above all of its moving averages, while technical indicators have reached overbought levels, now partially losing their bullish strength. Overall, the risk remains skewed to the upside as long as the price holds above the 1.1280 area, the immediate short-term support.
Support levels: 1.1280 1.1240 1.1200
Resistance levels: 1.1315 1.1350 1.1390
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