Analysis

Dollar rises on selloff in euro before paring gains on profit taking

Although the greenback continued its recent winning streak on Friday and hit a fresh 16-month peak on selloff in the euro due to lockdown in Austria and dovish comments by ECB President Lagarde, price retreated in New York session on profit taking.  
  
Reuters reported the euro slumped on Friday to near 16-month lows after Austria became the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full lockdown and Germany did not rule out doing the same.  
  
The single currency has been on the back foot all week, pressured by growing expectations that interest rates will be tightened faster elsewhere, particularly in the United States.  
  
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde doubled down on her cautious position on Friday, saying the ECB should not tighten policy as it could undermine recovery  
  
Versus the yen, although the pair inched higher to session highs of 114.53 on broad-based strength, price later tumbled in tandem with U.S. yields to intra-day 113.59 low before recovering to 114.06 in New York.  
  
The single currency remained on the back foot and fell steadily from 1.1373 at Asian open to 1.1283 on news of lockdown in Austria, price then hit a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1250 at New York open following ECB Lagarde's dovish comment but later rebounded to 1.1322 on short covering. Price last traded at 1.1281 near the close.  
  
Cable swung wildly in hectic trading, price moved sideways in Asia and briefly rebounded to 1.3509 at European open and then fell in tandem with euro to session lows of 1.3408 before rebounding to 1.3475.  
  
More news from Reuters, the financial markets should not assume the Bank of England's first step to tighten policy will be to raise interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25%, chief economist Huw Pill said on Friday.    Brexit news, Reuters reported Britain's Brexit minister David Frost said on Friday that significant gaps remained with the European Union across most issues relating to the Northern Irish protocol and that if no solution could be found, then Article 16 would be used.    
"Significant gaps remain across most issues," Frost said.    "If no such solution can be found, we remain prepared to use the safeguard provisions under Article 16," Frost said.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales and EU consumer confidence on Monday.  
  
New Zealand retail sales, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Market Holiday, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Richmond Fed manufacturing on Tuesday.  
  
Australia construction work done, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, New Zealand interest rate decision, Swiss investor sentiment, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment and new home sales on Wednesday.  
  
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator, Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance, U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings on Thursday.  
  
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales, Swiss non-farm payrolls, GDP, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence and Canada budget balance on Friday.  
  

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