Analysis

Dollar ends higher on Fed's upbeat economic outlook

The greenback pared intra-day losses made in Asia and European morning and gained in post-FOMC trading to end the day higher against majority of its peers except the Japanese yen after the Federal Reserve upgraded its economic growth projections. Elsewhere, sterling rose across the board as British government tried to find compromise on the Internal Market Bill.  
  
Reuters reported the Federal Reserve kept interest rates pinned near zero on Wednesday and made a bold, new promise: to keep them there until inflation is on track to "moderately exceed" the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target "for some time."  
  
"Effectively what we are saying is that rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference following the release of the central bank's latest policy statement and economic projections.  
  
Reuters also reported the Federal Reserve signaled on Wednesday it expects the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis to accelerate with unemployment falling faster than the central bank expected in June.  
  
In new economic projections released along with the U.S. central bank's latest policy statement, Fed policymakers at the median see economic growth dropping by 3.7% this year, an improvement from the 6.5% drop projected in June.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar continued its recent losing streak and fell from 105.44 in Australia to 105.26 in Asian morning. Despite rebounding to 105.39, the pair later tumbled to a 6-week low of 104.81 in New York after release of weak U.S. retail sales data as well as fall in U.S. Treasury yields. Later, price rebounded strongly to 105.14 in post-FOMC trading on usd's broad-based strength.  
  
Reuters reported core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, fell 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.9% increase in July, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.   
  
This category, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, was previously reported to have advanced 1.4% in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core retail sales rising 0.5% in August. Overall retail sales increased 0.6% in August, in part as higher gasoline prices supported receipts at service stations.  
  
Although the single currency briefly fell to 1.1829 at Asian open, renewed buying emerged and price rose in tandem with cable to 1.1882 in Europe on usd's broad-based weakness. However, the pair erased intra-day gains and tumbled to session lows of 1.1878 in New York afternoon on usd's strength in post-FOMC trading together with cross-selling in euro especially vs sterling before staging a short-covering rebound to 1.1817.  
  
The British pound found renewed buying at 1.2876 at Asian open and rose to 1.2914. Despite retreating to 1.2877 in European morning, cable later rallied to session highs at 1.3008 (Reuters) in New York on sterling's broad-based strength as UK government attempts to find compromise on the newly introduced Internal Market Bill. The pair then pared some of its gains and retreated sharply to 1.2938 on usd's strength in post-FOMC trading.  
  
Reuters reported British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has reached a deal to avert a rebellion by members of his own party over powers within its proposed Internal Market Bill that break international law, the BBC reported on Wednesday.   
  
In other news, Reuters reported the European Central Bank is ready to adjust policy if economic developments indicate it is failing to lift inflation back towards its target, AFP quoted ECB board member Isabel Schnabel as saying on Wednesday.  
  
Data to be released on Thursday :  
  
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and Canada ADP employment change.  

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