Analysis

Dollar ends higher in hectic trading on Fed Clarida's hawkish comments

The greenback swung wildly against its peers on Wednesday as despite dropping at New York open on poor U.S. ADP jobs data, usd rallied across the board in New York morning after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida said the central bank would look to raise interest rates by 2023.  
  
Reuters reported U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in July, likely constrained by shortages of workers and raw materials.    Private payrolls rose by 330,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Data for June was revised slightly down to show 680,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 692,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls would increase by 695,000 jobs.   
Also, the Federal Reserve should be in the position to begin raising interest rates in 2023, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday, as he predicted the U.S. economy remains on track to meet the central bank's employment and inflation goals.    "I believe that these ... necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022," Clarida said in prepared remarks for a webcast discussion hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Commencing policy normalization in 2023 would, under these conditions, be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework."  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar retreated to 109.92 in Asian morning before rebounding to 109.23 in European morning. However, the pair then erased its gains and tumbled to a fresh 2-month low at 108.73 in New York morning on poor U.S. jobs data. Price then swiftly rallied to an intra-day high at 109.67 in New York in tandem with U.S. yields after comments from Fed's Clarida.  
  
The single currency went through hectic trading as despite rebounding to 1.1879 at European open, price dropped to 1.1843 in European morning. The pair then rallied to session highs at 1.1899 in New York morning on poor U.S. data but only to tumble to an intra-day low at 1.1834 on broad-based usd's rally after Clarida's hawkish comments.  
  
The British pound retreated to 1.3902 at Asian open before gaining to 1.3946 in early European morning on cross-selling of sterling especially vs euro. The pair then ratcheted higher to session highs at 1.3957 on poor U.S. data before falling to 1.3886 near New York close on usd's broad-based usd's strength following comments from Clarida.  
  
On the data front, Reuters said that the euro zone retail sales rose roughly in line with expectations in June though less steeply than in May, when consumers flocked back to shops after coronavirus restrictions were eased.    The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Wednesday that retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.5% month-on-month in June and were 5.0% higher than a year earlier.    Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 1.7% monthly rise and forecast a 4.5% year-on-year increase.  
  
Data to be released on Thursday:  
  
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, Germany industrial orders, France industrial output, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC Vote Cut, U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.

 

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