Did Santa Deliver S&P Coal?
|
The Santa Claus rally in the S&P may be ending. The economic news, released on Valentine's Day, that December retail sales fell 1.2% in December stopped the Santa Claus rally in its tracks. It was the biggest plunge in nine years. Seems that Santa was delivering lumps of coal.
This chart shows the S&P since its Fireball Top in September, 2018. From that top, the S&P declined in 7 moves into a low on December 26th. This completed a down Chaos Clamshell. The decline was 635 points in 96 days. That is about 1.75 (7/4) circles of 360 in 1/4 of a year.
Since that low, the Santa Claus rally has moved up 446 points in 50 days so far. That is about 3/2 of a circle in price, and 1/7 of a year in time. My ZD36 energy forecast is suggesting a top near the 21st of February, but a turn can come early. In December, ZD36 was suggesting a low near December 31st, but it came 5 days earlier.
The chart shows a possible 7 moves up in the Santa Claus rally. With Monday being a US holiday, the S&P may hold up into next week. Right now the rainbow (1.5, 3, 6, 12, and 24 days) of EXMA's is mostly up, with only the 1.5 and 3 day turning down. Watch for the possibility that the others turn down next week. Such a downturn would mark the end of the move 2 of 7 in a much larger down Chaos Clamshell.
You can learn more about Chaos Clamshells in the free course, "Trading The Chaos Clamshell, linked on the Courses page at http://Moneytide.com.
This content was published on Dr. Al Larson's Chaos Clinic which you can attend each Friday for free.
Dr. Al Larson has developed a complete Chaos Model of Markets, four unique courses that let you become a Certified Chaos Trader, some very unique eMylar fractal pattern overlays, and tools that permit forecasting individual stocks and markets years in advance. You can also sign up for a free weekly email, and attend a free Chaos Clinic on Fridays. To learn more, click on the author's profile.
Be sure to sign up for the free weekly email!
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.