Analysis

EUR/USD: Daily recommendations on major

Despite a pullback from a 3-1/3 month peak, the greenback ended the day higher against majority of its peers in hectic trading on Thursday on dampened risk appetite. Euro fell across the board on ECB's dovish hold.  
  
Reuters reported the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to a two-month high last week, a reminder that the labor market was far from being out of the woods as the nation confronts a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections.    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 51,000 to a seasonally adjusted 419,000 for the week ended July 17, the highest level since mid-May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 350,000 applications for the latest week.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar retreated to 110.09 in thin Asian morning as Japanese markets remained closed, then marginally lower to 110.08 at European open, price rebounded to 110.35 in European morning. However, the pair then erased its gains and fell in tandem with U.S. yields to session lows at 110.02 at New York open before trading sideways.  
  
The single currency swung wildly in hectic trading as despite trading sideways in Asia and European morning, price briefly rebounded to 1.1813 on ECB's unchanged rate decision but only to fall sharply to 1.1772 at New York open as the central bank said it would maintain low rates for a longer time. Euro then rallied to an intra-day high at 1.1830 in New York morning on short-covering but only to tumble to sessions low of 1.1758 on broad-based usd's rebound later.  
  
News from Reuters, the European Central Bank unveiled new policy guidance on Thursday that hints at even longer support for the bloc's struggling economy, in line with its recent commitment to boost inflation that has undershot the ECB's 2% target for nearly a decade.    Unveiling a new strategy and a tweaked inflation target just two weeks ago, the ECB said that long periods of low inflation would require "especially forceful or persistent" policy support, a hint that stimulus might be kept in place for longer than many had predicted.     The ECB said it expects rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching it 2% target "well ahead" of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon.  
  
The British pound found renewed buying at 1.3691 in Asian morning and resumed its recent ascent to 1.3757 in early European morning before briefly retreating to 1.3715. The pair then rallied to an intra-day high at 1.3787 on broad-based buying in sterling before retreating to 1.3741 on profit-taking and later staged a rebound to 1.3778 on renewed cross-buying of sterling near the close.  
  
Reuters on other news said a significant group of European Central Bank policymakers objected to the new interest rate guidance it gave on Thursday but most were won over and only two -- the German and Belgian central bank chiefs -- held out, four sources told Reuters.    "It was an unusually robust debate, and a lot more than just two people voiced concerns, but most were eventually won over by (ECB President Christine) Lagarde," one of the sources said.    A third policymaker, who also voiced significant objections, had to leave the meeting early and was not present at the final tally, one of the sources added.  
  
Data to be released on Friday:  
  
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan market holiday, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI.

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