Breaking away from the norms

• Metals take no names!
• The manipulation of metals continues.

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  I have a very long FWIW for you today... I'll give a recap of the markets I follow and then onto the FWIW... Bill Weathers greets me this morning with his song: Lovely Day.

Yesterday, in the markets, the dollar recovered the index point in the BBDXY that it had lost the night before, and ended the day at 1,209... The metals were quite busy yesterday with large gains, and large, short sales butting heads... Gold round up closing up $88 to close at $4,598... And Silver, closed up $5.43 to end at $85.39... Both Gold & Silver were up much larger amounts, before the SPTs stepped in to make sure that Gold didn't close above $4,600 and Silver above $86... But they did still have banner days, and we can't get all too upset about the SPT's move.

Here's Kitco.com's Jim Wycoff, "Keen risk aversion in markets as Federal Reserve served grand jury subpoenas. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday the U.S. Department of Justice has served the Federal Reserve with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over Powell’s testimony last summer about the Fed’s building renovations. “The move represents an unprecedented escalation in President Donald Trump’s battle with the Fed, an independent agency he has repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers,” said the Associated Press."

Chuck again... first, geopolitical saber rattling pushed the metals higher on Sunday night, and then yesterday we had this nonsense going on and the markets freaked out...  I read where the next stop for Gold is $4,770... Gold would take that out in a NY Minute, if not for SPTs! 

Two weeks into 2026, and Gold & Silver seem to have weathered the early headwinds of tax loss selling, portfolio rebalancing and precious-metal volatility with three new all-time-highs, I can't wait to see where they go from here.

And the shortage in Silver that I've talked about for a few years now, is really beginning to show its cards... here's moneymetals.com with a thought on Silver: "The underlying issue is that there are true shortages beginning to manifest.

Silver demand has outstripped supply for four straight years, and the Silver Institute projects that 2025 will be the fifth. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces in 2024. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.

This inventory tightness globally seems to have created an unusual setup in COMEX futures, as investors appear to be moving March contracts backward to January and February."  

Chuck Again... This shortage is real folks and should underpin Silver all the way up until the shortage is resolved. I've always kept this lesson from my dad in mind... There are no such things as shortages, only items that are need of a price adjustment... And Silver is finally getting its price adjustment! 

The price of Oil bumped back higher to a $59 handle yesterday, and the 10-year continued to rise, ending the day trading with a 4.18% yield... 

In the overnight markets last night... the dollar continued on its way to a brief rally, as it gained another index point to start the day at 1,210... I don't get why the dollar bugs have decided to push up the dollar at this time, but it is what it is... Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning is down $$13 to start the day, and Silver is on the rally tracks again this morning and is up $41 -cents this morning.  

The price of Oil has risen to trade with a $60 handle overnight... And the Petrol Currencies are liking the rise in price for sure! The leader of the Petrol Currencies is the Russian ruble, so there's that... And the 10-year's yield has risen to a 4.20% yield... The bond boys are really pushing the envelope here with the Fed Heads, don't you think? I do, and that's all that matters here.. HAHAHAHA! 

The U.S. Data Cupboard sees the STUPID CPI for Dec this morning, So get ready for a piece of data that's full of lies and false numbers.. That's what the markets get all giddy about... I don't think they really think about what's in the soup... I'm just saying.

To recap... The dollar pushed higher yesterday after getting sold the previous night. The metals kicked some dollar tail yesterday and took names later... Gold closed up $88 and Silver $5.43, but their respective gains would have been even greater if for no STPs entering the markets... I read where the next stop for Gold is $4,770... If for no STPs, Gold would take that out soon enough! 

Here's your snippet: "Silver was among the best-performing asset classes of 2025, alongside platinum and gold mining equities. With gains of 148% in U.S. Dollar terms and 118% in Euro terms, the precious metal significantly outperformed equity markets as well as Bitcoin. The rally was particularly pronounced in December, when silver surged by 25% alone. Both December and the full year 2025 ended with silver priced at $71.50 per troy ounce.

At its peak, silver temporarily reached $84 per ounce, and in China even the equivalent of $89 per ounce. Notably, the previous nominal high from 1980 – $54.50 per ounce – had only been exceeded a few weeks earlier.

This spectacular rally until shortly after Christmas was abruptly interrupted. On Monday, December 29, silver fell by nearly 10% within just over an hour during early morning trading in Australia. This sharp decline raises important questions, most notably whether the move may have been driven by deliberate price manipulation.

A brief history of precious metals price manipulation

Price manipulation in the precious metals markets is not a rumor; it has been established repeatedly in courts of law. Fines and settlement payments in the tens and hundreds of millions of dollars have been imposed on institutions such as Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and Scotiabank. In several cases, multi-year prison sentences were handed down to individuals involved in the manipulation of precious metals prices. Most cases involved downward price pressure rather than upward distortion. In addition to private actors, government institutions have also influenced prices, most notably the gold price.

On August 5, 1993, the longest systematic suppression of the gold price began. It lasted for more than two decades. Initially, it prevented gold from trading above $400 per ounce until 1996 and subsequently pushed the price down to around $250 per ounce by 2001. Price interventions also occurred during the gold bull market after 2001, when prices eventually rose to nearly $2,000 per ounce by 2011. During that phase, the objective was not to stop the overall upward trend, but rather to prevent excessively rapid price increases occurring at sensitive times – particularly during crises, presumably to calm market participants.

One explicit motive for price suppression was articulated by then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on May 18, 1993, nearly three months before the start of the suppression campaign. His statement can be found in minutes published five years later. He said the following in the context of inflationary risks, with the word “thermometer” referring to the price of gold:

“If we are dealing with psychology, then the thermometers one uses to measure it have an effect. I was raising the question on the side with Governor Mullins of what would happen if the Treasury sold a little gold in this market. There’s an interesting question here because if the gold price broke in that context, the thermometer would not be just a measuring tool. It would basically affect the underlying psychology.” Greenspan was thus contemplating gold sales to prevent a rapidly rising price, as such a move would have signaled inflation. The intention was to dampen inflation expectations and, in turn, influence the behavior of savers, businesses, and workers.

Price manipulation can therefore influence precious metals markets for many years, making it one of the most important factors affecting the price. For investors, this raises the question of whether the late-December 2025 price decline was manipulated – and to what extent similar interventions could shape prices in the coming months. In recent years, such manipulations have become relatively rare, with only a few suspected cases. Notably, during silver’s surge to its 2011 high, prices were not suppressed; however, afterwards, the market was demonstrably subjected to systematic manipulation.

Unlike consumable commodities, precious metals can be suppressed for extended periods by influencing inventory and storage dynamics. In contrast, attempts to suppress prices in crude oil, for example, would quickly lead to increased consumption, thereby counteract the effect. I have discussed precious metals manipulation in detail in my book The Gold Cartel (Palgrave Macmillan). The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has been investigating gold price manipulation since 1998.

Intraday price action in late December 2025

Let us turn to silver’s price behavior near its year-end high in 2025. The chart illustrates the intraday spot silver price movement from Tuesday, December 23, through the holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, December 24, and the subsequent trading day on Friday, December 26, extending to Sunday, December 28, 2025, when the price peak occurred. All intraday prices are shown in New York time. As a result, price data already appears on Sunday afternoon, corresponding to the start of Monday morning trading in Australia, while it is still Sunday on the U.S. East Coast.

Silver at its 2025 high, in U.S. Dollar per troy ounce, December 23-28, 2025.

It is clearly visible how the price surged sharply in a short period of time from $72 per troy ounce on Wednesday before the Christmas day to $84 per ounce after the weekend on Sunday in New York (Monday morning in Australia). This was followed by the previously mentioned sharp decline during early morning trading in Australia, when silver fell by nearly 10% within just over an hour."

Chuck again... This article goes on, and I highly recommend you clicking the link above and reading it in its entirety.

Market Prices 1/13/2026: American Style: A$ .6701, kiwi .5760, C$ .7204, euro 1.1662, sterling 1.3468, Swiss $1.2522, European Style: rand 16.4577, krone 10.0954, SEK 9.1895, forint 331.48, zloty 3.6100, koruna 20.7892, RUB 78.59, yen 158.90, sing 1.2873, HKD 7.8021, INR 90.19, China 6.9756, peso 17.91, BRL 5.3804, BBDXY 1,210, Dollar Index 98.97, Oil $60.58, 10-year 4.20%, Silver $85.80, Platinum $2,347.00, Palladium $1,857.00, Copper $6.06, and Gold... $4,586.

That's it for today... The Divisional Rounds of the NFL Playoffs are set... The games on Sat and Sun were outstanding, except the last game, which was a dud... We got a new cable system here and had to have a technician come out and activate it... he said, "Well, so far they can't replace me with AI"... I said, not yet! My wife gave me the "I can't believe you just said that look"... Oh well, I call 'em the way I see 'em... that's for sure! The Outsiders take us to the finish line today with their song: Time Won't Let Me... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!