Analysis

AUD/USD: piercing yearly lows

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7258

  • Disappointing Chinese data hit the Aussie, under pressure despite better stocks' performance.
  • AUD/USD pair intrinsically bearish, upward corrections will tempt shorts to add.  

The Australian dollar is among the weakest currencies today, trading at fresh yearly lows against the greenback, amid soft Australian and Chinese data released overnight. The National Australia Bank's index on Business Confidence for July ticked higher to 7 from the previous 6, although Business Conditions missed market's expectations, down to 12 for the month. The biggest disappointment, however, came from China, as July Retail Sales rose by less-than-expected, up 8.8% YoY. Industrial Production in the same month grew 6.0%, matching June's reading but missing market's forecast of 6.3%. Despite a recovery in worldwide equities, the Hang Seng plunged, also weighed by Yuan's strength, and all of it denting Aussie's demand.

The AUD/USD pair trades a couple of pips above its daily low of 0.7251, maintaining a bearish stance short-term, as, after a brief consolidative stage, the pair is at the lower end of such range. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA accelerated south above the current level, now catching up with price, as technical indicators hold well into negative territory, with the Momentum now flat after correcting extreme oversold conditions and the RSI holding around 30. The pair could bounce from here, should US equities correct higher and manage to stay afloat, but the dominant trend is bearish, and sellers will likely add on upward corrective movements.

  Support levels: 0.7250 0.7215 0.7290  

Resistance levels: 0.7280 0.7315 0.7340

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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