AUD/USD Forecast: Waiting for the RBA’s decision on monetary policy
|AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6880
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold at a record low of 0.75%.
- AUD/USD technically bearish in the short term, 0.6770 likely on a dovish surprise from Lowe.
The Australian dollar gave up to dollar’s demand in the last trading session of the day, losing the 0.6900 level. The pair’s decline seems to be correlated to Wall Street soaring to fresh record highs on the back of relief news coming from the trade war front, as speculative interest dumped other high-yielding assets in favour of stocks. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia is having a monetary policy meeting early Tuesday, and market players seem to be eager to take profits out of the table ahead of it. The central bank is foreseen holding rates after cutting them three times this year and uplift the wording about the economic outlook, easing the dovish stance.
Australian October TD Securities Inflation which was up by 0.1% MoM and by 1.5% YoY, matching the previous readings. Ahead of the RBA’s announcement, the country will release the AIG Performance of Service Index, and the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same month.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6880, short-term bearish according to the 4-hour chart, as it’s accelerating its decline after breaking below the 20 SMA. The 100 SMA maintains its bullish slope below the current level, while technical indicators have accelerated their declines within negative levels. The pair’s direction will depend on how the market reacts to the RBA announcement, with a dovish surprise most likely having a larger effect than a hawkish one.
Support levels: 0.6840 0.6800 0.6770
Resistance levels: 0.6900 0.6930 0.6965
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