AUD/USD Forecast: Waiting for the RBA near the 2021 low
Premium|Take advantage of 50% OFF on your first month.
Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.
You have reached your limit of 5 free articles for this month.
Get Premium without limits for only $9.99 for the first month
Access all our articles, insights, and analysts.
UNLOCK OFFERAUD/USD Current Price: 0.7361
- Australian inflation printed at 2.6% YoY in July, according to the TD Securities report.
- The RBA is set to keep its monetary policy unchanged, turn dovish.
- AUD/USD retains its bearish tone after a modest intraday advance.
The AUD/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance on Monday, ending the day in the 0.7360 price zone. It peaked at 0.7381, later weighed by the poor performance of US equities. Absent demand for the greenback kept the downside in check. Higher gold prices helped limit slides, despite tepid Australian data released at the beginning of the day. Australian TD Securities Inflation improved from 0.4% to 0.5% MoM in July, while the annual reading printed at 2.6%. The AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index came in at 60.8 in July, down from 63.2 in the previous month.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, August 3. The central bank is expected to maintain the cash rate steady at 0.1% and the three-year target of 0.1% on government bonds. In its previous meeting, the RBA decided to reduce the pace of bond purchases starting September from A$ 5 billion per week to A$ 4 billion. However, and given the latest coronavirus-related developments, market participants are expecting the RBA to revert such a decision and present a more cautious stance.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair is still at risk of falling. The 4-hour chart shows that a flat 20 SMA keeps capping the upside while developing below bearish longer moving averages. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain within negative levels, lacking directional strength. The bearish case will be firmer on a break below 0.7288, this year low.
Support levels: 0.7330 0.7290 0.7250
Resistance levels: 0.7370 0.7410 0.7450
AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7361
- Australian inflation printed at 2.6% YoY in July, according to the TD Securities report.
- The RBA is set to keep its monetary policy unchanged, turn dovish.
- AUD/USD retains its bearish tone after a modest intraday advance.
The AUD/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance on Monday, ending the day in the 0.7360 price zone. It peaked at 0.7381, later weighed by the poor performance of US equities. Absent demand for the greenback kept the downside in check. Higher gold prices helped limit slides, despite tepid Australian data released at the beginning of the day. Australian TD Securities Inflation improved from 0.4% to 0.5% MoM in July, while the annual reading printed at 2.6%. The AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index came in at 60.8 in July, down from 63.2 in the previous month.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, August 3. The central bank is expected to maintain the cash rate steady at 0.1% and the three-year target of 0.1% on government bonds. In its previous meeting, the RBA decided to reduce the pace of bond purchases starting September from A$ 5 billion per week to A$ 4 billion. However, and given the latest coronavirus-related developments, market participants are expecting the RBA to revert such a decision and present a more cautious stance.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the AUD/USD pair is still at risk of falling. The 4-hour chart shows that a flat 20 SMA keeps capping the upside while developing below bearish longer moving averages. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain within negative levels, lacking directional strength. The bearish case will be firmer on a break below 0.7288, this year low.
Support levels: 0.7330 0.7290 0.7250
Resistance levels: 0.7370 0.7410 0.7450
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.