A foggy Friday: When risk assets rose and safe havens lost their way

Friday market highlights

• DXY sinks below 97.00 — lowest level in 2025.
• Gold crashes from $3,450 to $3,285, despite dollar weakness.
• GBP and EUR surge, highlighting broad dollar decline.
• Middle East ceasefire rumors + China–U.S. tariff deal ease geopolitical pressure.
• Bitcoin stalls near $107,000, failing to act as a risk hedge.
• Core PCE dips, unemployment ticks up, fueling Fed pivot talk.
• S&P 500 closes higher, showing risk appetite despite confusion.
• Technical breakdowns and position unwinding deepen volatility.

Oh, Friday… What a Day to Be a Trader!

June the 27th, 2025 will go down in history as the masterclass of market contradiction a session in which logical fundamentals were left on the back seat and technical madness assumed the driving wheel.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell under the benchmark 97.00 figure- the weakest in the year- showing a widespread weakness in the dollar with dovish comments made by the Fed together with poor macro prints subduing the dollar needle. core PCE slipped, consumer spending tailed off, and unemployment crept up, deepening the anticipation that rates will be rotated toward the latter half of the year.

Text book example, that type of dollar weakness- coupled with geopolitical jitters ought to have powered gold. However, the safe-haven metal plunged instead to a week-high of $3,450 and subsequently settled around the point of $3,285, which has defied the historical tendency and flabbergasted the traders who hinge on the inverse relationship.

What then brought about this failure?

A change of opinion like a hurricane. Not much unity at the NATO summit; behind the scenes, divisions on how much help to provide to Ukraine and how much to spend on the military elicited unease. Next was headlines of ceasefire in the Middle East that quickly killed off one of the best geopolitical pillars underlining the recent advances by gold. In the meantime, a tariff cut agreement between China and the U.S. infused enough optimism to the world to ensure that the tide was shifted in favour of taking on risk.

And here is the twist: GBP and EUR jumped with the tumble of the dollar, pitching further the bearish tone of USD. Still despite such pressure gold failed to stay above important support at 3300. After that line broke, the selling became technical, which was due to both profit taking and algorithm flow entering the market, making it a mini rout instead of a normal correction.

Not even Bitcoin, which has been heralded, most recently as the digital gold, responded. It was stagnated at about 107,000 without hedge, without breakout, only an inertia. That the crypto, precious metals and dollar were all out of step only made the cognitive dissonance in the market even worse.

And through all that racket, the S&P 500 was sneaking around and finishing up in the green- a good move that seemed almost a mistake. equities were able to accommodate the mayhem and they mustered late-day health, possibly behind falling yields or just something as simple as rotation into risk. This however brought up another dimension of confusion to an already displaced trading day.

At the end of the trading day, this was no longer a matter of volatility, it was structural disconnect. Dollar down. Gold down. Bitcoin flat. Stocks up. Yields mixed. It was a recipe that did not fit macro common sense, but every technical chart was yelling reaction over reason.

Now the Monday comes. The market does not require to be told what to do, but rather needs to understand.

The focus of eyes is:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday).

JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday).

Fed commentary + OPEC board bites potential.

A zone of resistance will be the one between $3,180 and 3,200 dated in the case that gold remains close to the 3,285 level. The further break would allow clearing ways to the level of 3,100, yet the reversal may happen as well in case risk-off mood kicks in or the international tension erupts. The DXY is still on a declining trend- medium-term, however, only in case the market becomes associated with fundamentals once more.

In the case of Bitcoin and risk assets, Monday can provide even the initial sign in this macro mist.

Friday was a dislocation. Monday could be resolution—or a deeper unraveling.